Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille47.1%fair odds 2.12
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
Strasbourg27.2%fair odds 3.67
Expected goals1.64 – 1.19total 2.83
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Strasbourg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Strasbourg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 2–19.4%10.60
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–07.9%12.65
- 1–26.9%14.54
- 0–06.5%15.33
- 0–16.4%15.53
- 2–25.6%17.78
- 3–15.1%19.45
- 3–04.3%23.20
Winning margin
10.5%
Lille by 3+
fair 9.52
14.5%
Lille by 2
fair 6.91
22.1%
Lille by 1
fair 4.52
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
16.0%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 6.27
7.7%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 12.99
3.6%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 27.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Lille goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Strasbourg goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 47.1% | 46.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Strasbourg win | 27.2% | 27.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 51.8% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.7% | 55.2% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.64 | 1.59 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.19 | 1.16 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win47.1%2.12
- Draw25.7%3.90
- Strasbourg win27.2%3.67
- Double chance Lille or draw72.8%1.37
- Double chance Lille or Strasbourg74.3%1.35
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw52.9%1.89
- Draw no bet Lille63.3%1.58
- Draw no bet Strasbourg36.7%2.73
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.7%1.86
- Over 3.531.4%3.18
- Over 4.515.7%6.38
- Under 1.522.0%4.54
- Under 2.546.3%2.16
- Under 3.568.6%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes56.7%1.76
- No43.3%2.31
- Yes and over 2.544.6%2.24
- Lille win and yes23.3%4.30
- Draw and yes19.1%5.22
- Strasbourg win and yes14.3%7.00
Team goals
- Lille over 0.580.5%1.24
- Lille over 1.548.6%2.06
- Lille over 2.522.6%4.43
- Strasbourg over 0.569.7%1.44
- Strasbourg over 1.533.5%2.99
- Strasbourg over 2.511.9%8.41
- Lille clean sheet30.3%3.30
- Strasbourg clean sheet19.5%5.13
- Lille win to nil23.8%4.20
- Strasbourg win to nil13.0%7.72
Handicap
- Lille −1.525.0%4.00
- Lille −2.510.5%9.52
- Strasbourg +1.575.0%1.33
- Strasbourg +2.589.5%1.12
- Strasbourg −1.511.3%8.85
- Lille +1.588.7%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored170
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right52.4%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.1% | 46.2% |
| 40–50% | 50 | 44.6% | 48.0% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 53.9% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.7% | 70.4% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.8% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.4% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 142 of 170 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5932 | 0.5808 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.7% | 53.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 142 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 170 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.