Lille vs Toulouse – 14 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 14 · 14:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 4th · 7 pts · 3 played DWW

2–1Full time

Toulouse 8th · 6 pts · 3 played WWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 39). Lille usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lille had 14.9 days of rest, Toulouse 14.7 and had to travel 791 km.

Away travel791 kmRest days14.9 · 14.7Matches / 14d0 · 0

Lille60%

Draw23%

Toulouse17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.91

Lille59%

Draw23%

Toulouse18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Lille60%

Draw23%

Toulouse17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.91

Lille53%

Draw25%

Toulouse22%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.03

Lille59%

Draw23%

Toulouse18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Over 2.5 54% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 78

Team strength

Lille

Toulouse

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

42 AttackIn forecast 45

60 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Toulouse

3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+1.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.65

100% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 67%

15.67 ShotsContext 10.33

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

38% On target shareContext 36%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

66% Box shareContext 65%

23% ConversionContext 19%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.67 Shots allowedContext 13.67

2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.33 BlocksContext 5.00

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

63% Save rateContext 50%

54% PossessionIn forecast 39%

449 PassesContext 337

377 Accurate passesContext 273

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.12 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.33 FoulsContext 11.33

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.74 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.60 ShotsContext 10.60

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

36% On target shareContext 43%

8.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

67% Box shareContext 69%

18% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

8.60 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.25 BlocksContext 4.00

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

73% Save rateContext 58%

56% PossessionIn forecast 40%

510 PassesContext 363

440 Accurate passesContext 297

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.10 FoulsContext 11.80

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Toulouse

Rest14.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel791 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug	14.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	791 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 2A. Mandi

32A. Bouaddi 21B. André

27Félix Correia 17N. Mukau 7M. Fernandez-Pardo

9O. Giroud

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

24D. Methalie 17A. Francis 23C. Cásseres 15A. Dønnum

10G. Gboho 9F. Magri 11S. Hidalgo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Toulouse+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Toulouse · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Lille	Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 A	W 2–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Lille wins1 draws1 Toulouse wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

12 Apr 2025Toulouse1–2Lille
5 Oct 2024Lille2–1Toulouse
25 Feb 2024Toulouse3–1Lille
12 Nov 2023Lille1–1Toulouse
18 Mar 2023Toulouse0–2Lille
17 Sep 2022Lille2–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	3.67	2.00
Conceded per game	1.33	2.00
Match goals	5.00	4.00	2.82
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	54%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	52%
Clean sheets	33%	67%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	Lille	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	3.67	2.00
Conceded per game	1.33	2.00
Match goals	5.00	4.00	2.82
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	54%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	52%
Clean sheets	33%	67%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.00
Corners conceded	2.67	8.00
Match total	8.67	12.00	10.73
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.33
Opponent cards	2.33	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.33	3.92
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	Lille	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	3.89
Corners conceded	3.50	5.11
Match total	8.70	9.00	10.73
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.90	3.92
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.53

Red cards0.21league 0.37

Cards 5+36%league 40%

Fouls24.6league 23.7

Penalties0.31league 0.47

Home wins42%league 67%

Lille5 with this referee

Record1-3-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

D10 Nov 24A · Nice2–22
W2 Mar 24A · Reims1–02
D3 Jun 23A · Estac Troyes1–14
D1 Feb 23H · Clermont Foot0–00
L31 Aug 22H · Nice1–21

Toulouse7 with this referee

Record2-4-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W2 Mar 25A · Angers4–03
D18 Aug 24H · Nantes0–01
L15 Mar 24H · Lyon2–32
D17 Dec 23H · Rennes0–03
D22 Oct 23H · Reims1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.