Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid – 9 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 9 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool

2–1Full time

Atletico Madrid

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 76). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Liverpool had 5 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 4.2 and had to travel 1,446 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,446 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Liverpool59%

Draw21%

Atletico Madrid20%

Expected goals 2.05 – 1.13

Liverpool51%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Liverpool59%

Draw21%

Atletico Madrid20%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.13

Liverpool51%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid27%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.27

Liverpool58%

Draw22%

Atletico Madrid21%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.10

Over 2.5 62% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

15°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 56%

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 119

Team strength

Liverpool

Atletico Madrid

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 81

85 AttackIn forecast 82

84 DefenceIn forecast 87

66 Form indexContext 66

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Atletico Madrid

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.50 ShotsContext 14.00

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

34% On target shareContext 31%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

60% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.30 BlocksContext 3.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

65% Save rateContext 71%

57% PossessionIn forecast 52%

503 PassesContext 487

429 Accurate passesContext 422

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.80 FoulsContext 11.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool DDW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km632 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 66 · 5 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

W4 SepA · Ipswich2–01.9 xPts
D29 AugH · Nottingham Forest2–22.0 xPts
D23 AugA · Newcastle2–21.4 xPts

Atletico Madrid WDWL

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,446 km1,427 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L5 SepA · Athletic Club0–31.4 xPts
W29 AugA · Sevilla3–11.4 xPts
D23 AugH · Villarreal2–21.7 xPts
W19 AugH · Malaga2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Premier League 2026-2027, 4 Sep	4.2La Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,446 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	632 km	1,427 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

73R. Ngumoha 7F. Wirtz 29B. Barcola

9A. Isak

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

3-5-2

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill

20G. Simeone 10Álex Baena 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios 14Marcos Llorente

19J. Alvarez 7K. Lee

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home No home games yet this season.

Atletico Madrid · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Liverpool wins0 draws0 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game2.67 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

17 Sep 2025Liverpool3–2Atletico Madrid
3 Nov 2021Liverpool2–0Atletico Madrid
19 Oct 2021Atletico Madrid2–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.19
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	62%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Liverpool	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.60
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	3.40	3.10	3.19
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.13
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.88
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Liverpool	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.78
Corners conceded	3.30	4.11
Match total	9.40	9.89	10.13
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	4.50	4.30	3.88
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 119 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.46league 3.75

Red cards0.29league 0.13

Cards 5+50%league 25%

Fouls25.0league 24.9

Penalties0.19league 0.25

Home wins36%league 63%

Liverpool

No previous matches with this referee.

Atletico Madrid2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L21 Oct 25A · Arsenal0–42
W21 Jan 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.