Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Liverpool had 2.8 days of rest, Fulham 7 and had to travel 286 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel286 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Liverpool61%
Draw20%
Fulham19%
Liverpool59%
Draw22%
Fulham19%
Liverpool62%
Draw19%
Fulham19%
Liverpool53%
Draw22%
Fulham25%
Liverpool61%
Draw20%
Fulham19%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 75%
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 112
Team strength
Liverpool
Fulham
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
85
AttackIn forecast
66
84
DefenceIn forecast
68
80
Form indexContext
22
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolFulham
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.67
ShotsContext
16.67
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
36%
On target shareContext
24%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
57%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.67
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
75%
Save rateContext
53%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
536
PassesContext
626
469
Accurate passesContext
543
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.67
FoulsContext
11.00
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
3.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
100%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.80
ShotsContext
15.10
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
24%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
62%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
66%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
501
PassesContext
505
430
Accurate passesContext
430
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.00
FoulsContext
10.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
DDWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km632 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 80 · 8 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 632 km | 774 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
21K. Tsimikas
4V. van Dijk
5J. Jacquet
33R. Araujo
38R. Gravenberch
8D. Szoboszlai
29B. Barcola
7F. Wirtz
23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Fulham+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Fulham · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Liverpool wins4 draws2 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.50
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 11 Apr 2026Liverpool2–0Fulham
- 4 Jan 2026Fulham2–2Liverpool
- 6 Apr 2025Fulham3–2Liverpool
- 14 Dec 2024Liverpool2–2Fulham
- 21 Apr 2024Fulham1–3Liverpool
- 3 Dec 2023Liverpool4–3Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.67 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Liverpool | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.20 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 8.34 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.33 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Liverpool | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.87
Red cards0.13league 0.03
Cards 5+41%league 37%
Fouls22.1league 23.4
Penalties0.19league 0.17
Home wins47%league 40%
Liverpool3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L3 Mar 26A · Wolves1–21
- W27 Apr 25H · Tottenham5–12
- W19 Aug 23H · Bournemouth3–12
Fulham7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W1 Mar 26H · Tottenham2–13
- W15 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest2–10
- D30 Jan 24H · Everton0–01
- W13 May 23A · Southampton2–00
- L25 Apr 23A · Aston Villa0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool3 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Fulham3 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
