Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest – 29 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 12:30 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–2Full time

Nottingham Forest 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Liverpool had 5.8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 6.9 and had to travel 132 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel132 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Liverpool59%

Draw21%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.07

Liverpool53%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Liverpool58%

Draw22%

Nottingham Forest21%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.09

Liverpool51%

Draw23%

Nottingham Forest26%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.20

Liverpool58%

Draw22%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.07

Over 2.5 60% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

18°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.7 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 90%

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 87

Team strength

Liverpool

Nottingham Forest

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

85 AttackIn forecast 68

84 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Nottingham Forest

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.30 ShotsContext 11.60

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

31% On target shareContext 37%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

60% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 16%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.90

13.40 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.70 BlocksContext 5.60

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

66% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

462 PassesContext 403

388 Accurate passesContext 331

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.40 FoulsContext 11.30

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool D

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 1 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

D23 AugA · Newcastle2–21.4 xPts

Nottingham Forest L

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel132 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

L22 AugH · Leeds0–11.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug	6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	132 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	390 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 30J. Frimpong

10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

23Víctor Muñoz 7F. Wirtz 18C. Gakpo

9A. Isak

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 31N. Milenković 23Jair

3N. Williams 24J. McAtee 21X. Schlager 34T. Aina

14D. Ndoye 10M. Gibbs-White

11Igor Jesus

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+1.6 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Nottingham Forest-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home No home games yet this season.

Nottingham Forest · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Liverpool wins1 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.00 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets38% · 38%

22 Feb 2026Nottingham Forest0–1Liverpool
22 Nov 2025Liverpool0–3Nottingham Forest
14 Jan 2025Nottingham Forest1–1Liverpool
14 Sep 2024Liverpool0–1Nottingham Forest
2 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Liverpool
29 Oct 2023Liverpool3–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	1.00	3.09
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	3.30	3.00	3.09
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	90%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	8.00	5.00	8.40
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	5.00	1.00
Match total	8.00	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.20
Corners conceded	3.60	4.40
Match total	9.80	8.60	8.40
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.20	1.60
Match total	3.70	3.10	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.45

Red cards0.06league 0.09

Cards 5+30%league 27%

Fouls20.2league 23.8

Penalties0.23league 0.18

Home wins38%league 64%

Liverpool2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W22 Dec 24A · Tottenham6–32
W24 Nov 24A · Southampton3–24

Nottingham Forest10 with this referee

Record5-3-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Mar 26H · Fulham0–02
W25 Jan 26A · Brentford2–00
W14 Dec 25H · Tottenham3–01
L26 Oct 25A · Bournemouth0–21
W18 May 25A · West Ham2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.