Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 2026 · 15:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest
0–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 0.66 – 0.47
Leeds
  • 88’ A. Stach
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Stach’s late goal settles it for Leeds

Nottingham Forest entered as favourites, but Leeds won 1–0 through a Stach goal. The chances were even, with xG of 0.66 and 0.47. On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 1.5 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nottingham Forest48%
Draw24%
Leeds ✓28%

Model vs reality

Nottingham Forest goals
0
Model 1.65 · xG 0.66
Leeds goals
1
Model 1.19 · xG 0.47
Total goals
1
Model 2.85 · xG 1.13
Score 0–1
6%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 54%
Both scored
No
Model 56%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchA. StachLeeds · 1 goal
8.0
  • RefereeRobert Jones
  • CoachesOliver Glasner · Daniel Farke
  • VenueThe City Ground
  • Weather at kick-off19°C · Partly cloudy · wind 5 km/h

Timeline

  1. T. AinaYellow card · Foul
    18’
  2. D. Calvert-LewinYellow card · Foul
    32’
  3. Half time · 0–0
  4. JairYellow card · Foul
    52’
  5. ⇄ C. WoodFor D. Ndoye
    62’
  6. ⇄ N. OkaforFor H. Wilson
    66’
  7. ⇄ L. NetzFor T. Aina
    74’
  8. ⇄ X. SchlagerFor J. McAtee
    74’
  9. ⇄ S. LongstaffFor B. Aaronson
    82’
  10. A. Stach 0–1
    88’
  11. ⇄ A. KalimuendoFor Murillo
    90+3’
  12. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Nottingham Forest12 shots · 6 in box, 6 outside
Leeds11 shots · 6 in box, 5 outside
Nottingham ForestLeeds
56% Possession 44%
0.66 Expected goals (xG) 0.47
1.47 Expected points (xPts) 1.10
12 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 3
8 Shots off target 2
2 Blocked shots 6
6 Shots inside the box 6
6 Shots outside the box 5
411 Passes 326
78% Pass accuracy 71%
3 Corners 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
15 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 3
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.71 Team rating 7.04

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

266.3 M. Sels(G)
57.2 Murillo ↓90’ 316.3 N. Milenković 236.3 Jair
36.7 N. Williams 66.9 I. Sangaré 247.2 J. McAtee ↓74’ 346.9 T. Aina ↓74’
107.0 M. Gibbs-White 146.3 D. Ndoye ↓62’
116.9 Igor Jesus
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.3
  • 5Murillo↓90’7.2
  • 31N. Milenković6.3
  • 23Jair6.3
  • 3N. Williams6.7
  • 6I. Sangaré6.9
  • 24J. McAtee↓74’7.2
  • 34T. Aina↓74’6.9
  • 10M. Gibbs-White7.0
  • 14D. Ndoye↓62’6.3
  • 11Igor Jesus6.9

Substitutes used

  • 25L. Netz↑74’6.3
  • 21X. Schlager↑74’6.5
  • 9C. Wood↑62’6.3
  • 15A. Kalimuendo↑90’

Unused: John Victor, O. Diomande, Z. Abbott, C. Hudson-Odoi, N. Domínguez

Coach: Oliver Glasner

Leeds 3-4-2-1

17.5 J. Trafford(G)
56.9 T. Muharemović 157.5 J. Bijol 67.3 J. Rodon
247.2 J. Justin 46.9 E. Ampadu 188.0★ A. Stach 26.7 J. Bogle
116.6 B. Aaronson ↓82’ 106.9 H. Wilson ↓66’
96.0 D. Calvert-Lewin
  • 1J. Trafford (G)7.5
  • 5T. Muharemović6.9
  • 15J. Bijol7.5
  • 6J. Rodon7.3
  • 24J. Justin7.2
  • 4E. Ampadu6.9
  • 18A. Stach ★8.0
  • 2J. Bogle6.7
  • 11B. Aaronson↓82’6.6
  • 10H. Wilson↓66’6.9
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.0

Substitutes used

  • 8S. Longstaff↑82’6.7
  • 19N. Okafor↑66’6.6

Unused: Lucas Perri, N. Elvedi, A. Cresswell, Jayden Lienou, D. James, A. Tanaka, L. Nmecha

Coach: Daniel Farke

Player stats

Top rated
A. StachLeeds8.0
2nd
J. TraffordLeeds7.5
3rd
J. BijolLeeds7.5

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 38% 26 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.3
Murillo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 90% 59 2 0 1/2 1/0 7.2
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 76% 45 0 0 0/0 3/1 6.3
Jair D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 43 1 1 0/1 2/2 6.3
N. Williams D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 27 3 0 1/1 1/1 6.7
I. Sangaré M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 79% 53 0 0 1/1 2/1 6.9
J. McAtee M 74 0 0 0 (0) 3 86% 37 1 0 0/0 0/2 7.2
T. Aina D 74 0 0 1 (1) 3 65% 26 0 0 3/5 1/0 6.9
M. Gibbs-White M 90 0 0 3 (0) 0 84% 38 0 1 3/6 1/2 7.0
D. Ndoye F 62 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 10 1 0 0/1 2/1 6.3
Igor Jesus F 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 78% 23 0 0 0/1 1/3 6.9
L. Netz D 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 78% 9 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
X. Schlager M 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 10 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
C. Wood F 28 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 5 0 0 0/1 0/1 6.3
A. Kalimuendo F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
J. Trafford G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 54% 35 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
T. Muharemović D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 89% 37 0 2 0/0 1/0 6.9
J. Bijol D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 55 1 2 0/0 1/1 7.5
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 72% 25 1 1 0/1 2/1 7.3
J. Justin D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 65% 20 6 1 0/0 1/2 7.2
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 80% 51 2 3 1/1 2/2 6.9
A. Stach M 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 55% 31 3 4 0/1 2/4 8.0
J. Bogle D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 23 1 1 1/2 1/3 6.7
B. Aaronson M 82 0 0 1 (1) 0 73% 15 1 0 2/2 0/2 6.6
H. Wilson M 66 0 0 0 (0) 1 87% 15 2 0 1/2 1/0 6.9
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 36% 14 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.0
S. Longstaff M 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
N. Okafor F 24 0 0 0 (0) 1 0% 3 2 1 2/3 1/0 6.6

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.