Lommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lommel United were slight favourites.
Lommel United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lommel United. Lommel United had 6.9 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7.8 and had to travel 32 km.
Away travel32 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lommel United56%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo22%
Lommel United51%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo24%
Lommel United56%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo22%
Lommel United48%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo28%
Lommel United57%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo21%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lommel)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 25
Team strength
Lommel United
KVC Westerlo
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
32
AttackIn forecast
42
41
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lommel UnitedKVC Westerlo
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
4.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.02
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
12.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
12%
On target shareContext
21%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
64%
Box shareContext
75%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
—
27.50
Shots allowedContext
20.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.50
10.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
47%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
385
PassesContext
476
314
Accurate passesContext
393
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.49
7.50
FoulsContext
13.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.14
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
75%
Scored inContext
80%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.13
ShotsContext
12.90
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
30%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
72%
Box shareContext
67%
21%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.25
17.88
Shots allowedContext
14.70
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
5.25
BlocksContext
3.60
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
78%
Save rateContext
57%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
420
320
Accurate passesContext
349
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.13
FoulsContext
10.20
12.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lommel United
DL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lommel United |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 87 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
5Dries Wouters
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
6J. Pelupessy
15Lucas Schoofs
21S. Appuah
41S. Nypan
10Tom Reyners
9D. Konadu
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
14C. Sandra
12R. Laalaloui
7Shunsuke Saito
13I. Sakamoto
20C. Congreve
9N. Bassette
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lommel United · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lommel United | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 5.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lommel United | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lommel United | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.50 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 4.50 | 2.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Lommel United | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.63 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 9.70 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 4.20 | 2.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.92league 2.41
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+24%league 18%
Fouls22.3league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins40%league 50%
Lommel United1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 May 26H · Beerschot VA3–11
KVC Westerlo4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Apr 26H · Genk1–21
- W15 Feb 26A · Antwerp2–04
- L8 Nov 25A · Charleroi0–21
- W2 Aug 25H · Zulte Waregem3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lommel United2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
KVC Westerlo2 games · scored 3 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Lommel United8 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
