Lommel United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lommel United55.1%fair odds 1.81
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.22
KVC Westerlo21.2%fair odds 4.72
Expected goals1.86 – 1.08total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lommel United ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lommel United goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.95
- 2–19.9%10.12
- 1–09.3%10.79
- 2–09.2%10.92
- 3–16.1%16.31
- 0–05.8%17.12
- 1–25.7%17.47
- 3–05.7%17.59
- 2–25.3%18.76
- 0–15.1%19.48
Winning margin
15.0%
Lommel United by 3+
fair 6.67
17.1%
Lommel United by 2
fair 5.86
23.1%
Lommel United by 1
fair 4.33
23.7%
Draw
fair 4.22
13.1%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 7.62
5.7%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 17.47
2.3%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 42.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Lommel United goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United win | 55.1% | 56.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 23.2% | +0.5 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 21.2% | 20.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 57.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 57.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lommel United | 1.86 | 1.92 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.08 | 1.09 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lommel United win55.1%1.81
- Draw23.7%4.22
- KVC Westerlo win21.2%4.72
- Double chance Lommel United or draw78.8%1.27
- Double chance Lommel United or KVC Westerlo76.3%1.31
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw44.9%2.23
- Draw no bet Lommel United72.2%1.38
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo27.8%3.60
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.2%4.94
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Lommel United win and yes27.0%3.71
- Draw and yes17.9%5.60
- KVC Westerlo win and yes11.5%8.70
Team goals
- Lommel United over 0.584.5%1.18
- Lommel United over 1.555.5%1.80
- Lommel United over 2.528.6%3.49
- KVC Westerlo over 0.566.0%1.52
- KVC Westerlo over 1.529.3%3.41
- KVC Westerlo over 2.59.5%10.49
- Lommel United clean sheet34.0%2.94
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet15.5%6.44
- Lommel United win to nil28.2%3.55
- KVC Westerlo win to nil9.7%10.32
Handicap
- Lommel United −1.532.0%3.12
- Lommel United −2.515.0%6.67
- KVC Westerlo +1.568.0%1.47
- KVC Westerlo +2.585.0%1.18
- KVC Westerlo −1.58.1%12.41
- Lommel United +1.591.9%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored22
Favourite won59.1%
Avg chance given to result44.7%
1X2 Brier0.515
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right59.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 44.9% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.4% | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 63.4% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 22 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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- ✓Standard Liege 2–0 RAAL La Louvière59·22·19
- ✗Lommel United 0–1 Charleroi43·25·32
- ✗KV Mechelen 3–3 Standard Liege37·26·38
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–2 Gent29·26·45
- ✗SK Beveren 1–0 Anderlecht32·24·44
- ✓Genk 3–2 KVC Westerlo62·21·17
- ✓OH Leuven 0–3 Club Brugge KV11·16·73
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 22 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.