Lorient vs Estac Troyes – 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 19:45 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–2Full time

Estac Troyes 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lorient were clear favourites.

Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lorient. Lorient had 7 days of rest, Estac Troyes 7 and had to travel 558 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel558 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lorient63%

Draw21%

Estac Troyes16%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.85

Lorient62%

Draw21%

Estac Troyes17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Lorient63%

Draw21%

Estac Troyes16%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.85

Lorient55%

Draw24%

Estac Troyes21%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.95

Lorient63%

Draw21%

Estac Troyes16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.86

Over 2.5 53% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 81%

RefereeAzzedine Souifi

Team strength

Lorient

Estac Troyes

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

28 AttackIn forecast 12

45 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estac Troyes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Estac Troyes

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.35 xGVia Att/Def —

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext —

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.90 ShotsContext 7.20

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

36% On target shareContext 40%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 4.56

58% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.60 Shots allowedContext 20.80

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.10

3.38 BlocksContext 4.80

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.10

76% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 39%

410 PassesContext 365

350 Accurate passesContext 296

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.78

8.60 FoulsContext 9.10

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,878 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

D22 AugA · Nice0–01.3 xPts

Estac Troyes D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel558 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 41 · 1 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

D22 AugH · Paris FC0–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	558 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,878 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

32N. Adjei 3M. Talbi 20D. Sylla

43Arsène Kouassi 8Noah Cadiou 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

17J. Makengo 33Gabin Bernardeau

42Mamadou Koné

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Estac Troyes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33P. Beach(G)

3A. Ouzenadji 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

8M. Diop 17A. Mille

11I. Gomis 22H. Picard 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Estac Troyes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estac Troyes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home No home games yet this season.

Estac Troyes · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Lorient wins2 draws1 Estac Troyes wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

12 Mar 2023Lorient2–0Estac Troyes
23 Oct 2022Estac Troyes2–2Lorient
21 May 2022Lorient1–1Estac Troyes
1 Dec 2021Estac Troyes2–0Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	0.00	2.78
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Lorient	Estac Troyes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.00
Conceded per game	1.20	0.00
Match goals	2.50	0.00	2.78
Over 1.5	80%	0%
Over 2.5	40%	0%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	100%
Failed to score	40%	100%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.00
Corners conceded	9.00	2.00
Match total	12.00	8.00	10.11
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	1.00	3.00	3.22
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lorient	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	3.30
Corners conceded	6.20	8.20
Match total	9.90	11.50	10.11
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.30
Opponent cards	2.20	1.30
Match total	3.50	2.60	3.22
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.