Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lorient62.2%fair odds 1.61
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.45
Estac Troyes15.3%fair odds 6.54
Expected goals1.93 – 0.85total 2.78
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estac Troyes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lorient ↓ · Estac Troyes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lorient goals, columns Estac Troyes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.65
- 1–011.4%8.75
- 1–110.7%9.34
- 2–19.8%10.18
- 3–07.4%13.44
- 0–06.7%14.84
- 3–16.3%15.82
- 0–14.7%21.16
- 1–24.3%23.15
- 2–24.2%23.98
Winning margin
18.6%
Lorient by 3+
fair 5.39
19.3%
Lorient by 2
fair 5.17
24.3%
Lorient by 1
fair 4.11
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.45
10.4%
Estac Troyes by 1
fair 9.61
3.7%
Estac Troyes by 2
fair 26.74
1.2%
Estac Troyes by 3+
fair 86.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Lorient goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Estac Troyes goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 62.2% | 62.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Estac Troyes win | 15.3% | 15.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 53.8% | -1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.5% | 50.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.93 | 1.97 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Estac Troyes | 0.85 | 0.86 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lorient win62.2%1.61
- Draw22.5%4.45
- Estac Troyes win15.3%6.54
- Double chance Lorient or draw84.7%1.18
- Double chance Lorient or Estac Troyes77.5%1.29
- Double chance Estac Troyes or draw37.8%2.65
- Draw no bet Lorient80.3%1.25
- Draw no bet Estac Troyes19.7%5.07
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.4%3.29
- Over 4.514.9%6.70
- Under 1.522.9%4.37
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.6%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes49.5%2.02
- No50.5%1.98
- Yes and over 2.538.8%2.58
- Lorient win and yes26.2%3.82
- Draw and yes15.7%6.36
- Estac Troyes win and yes7.5%13.26
Team goals
- Lorient over 0.585.5%1.17
- Lorient over 1.557.5%1.74
- Lorient over 2.530.5%3.28
- Estac Troyes over 0.557.2%1.75
- Estac Troyes over 1.520.9%4.78
- Estac Troyes over 2.55.5%18.25
- Lorient clean sheet42.8%2.34
- Estac Troyes clean sheet14.5%6.90
- Lorient win to nil36.0%2.78
- Estac Troyes win to nil7.8%12.89
Handicap
- Lorient −1.537.9%2.64
- Lorient −2.518.6%5.39
- Estac Troyes +1.562.1%1.61
- Estac Troyes +2.581.4%1.23
- Estac Troyes −1.54.9%20.41
- Lorient +1.595.1%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.642
Over 2.5 called right72.7%
BTTS called right45.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 55.8% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.8622 | 0.8861 |
| Avg chance given to result | 26.0% | 24.9% |
| Favourite won | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.