Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lorient were clear favourites.
Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lorient. Lorient had 7 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lorient61%
Draw22%
LE Havre17%
Lorient54%
Draw25%
LE Havre21%
Lorient60%
Draw23%
LE Havre17%
Lorient54%
Draw25%
LE Havre22%
Lorient62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 144
Team strength
Lorient
LE Havre
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
28
AttackIn forecast
20
45
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientLE Havre
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
73%
Scored inContext
58%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.88
ShotsContext
10.52
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
33%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.68
63%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.88
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
2.93
BlocksContext
3.55
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
66%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
415
PassesContext
371
352
Accurate passesContext
302
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.39
FoulsContext
13.33
12.91
Fouls sufferedContext
13.97
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
42%
On target shareContext
32%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
59%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.11
BlocksContext
2.90
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
71%
Save rateContext
79%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
404
PassesContext
362
344
Accurate passesContext
295
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.00
FoulsContext
14.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,434 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,434 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 97 | 97.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
77P. Katseris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
27E. K. Vinette
4G. Lloris
6É. Youté
93A. Sangante
8Y. Kechta
14R. Ndiaye
45I. Soumaré
17S. Boufal
13F. Doucouré
25M. Samatta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- LE Havre-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.88points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-2
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 1.44
LE Havre · Away
0.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-9
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H | D 4–4 HD 0–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 HL 2–6 A |
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Lens | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nice | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 44 of 96 · 1.38 per game | 31 of 96 · 0.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Lorient wins2 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025LE Havre1–1Lorient
- 28 Jan 2024Lorient3–3LE Havre
- 3 Sep 2023LE Havre3–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.24 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 42% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Lorient | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.45 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.64 | 9.17 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 12/31 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 9/31 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.21 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 19/33 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 13/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Lorient | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.55 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 144 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 3.66
Red cards0.24league 0.26
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls23.0league 23.6
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins40%league 46%
Lorient6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W24 Jan 26A · Rennes2–00
- W19 May 24H · Clermont Foot5–03
- D8 Oct 23A · Lyon3–30
- W12 Mar 23H · Estac Troyes2–00
- L30 Oct 22H · Nice1–20
LE Havre5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L22 Mar 26A · Paris FC2–31
- D26 Apr 25H · Monaco1–11
- D9 Mar 25H · Saint Etienne1–12
- L12 Jan 25H · Lens1–22
- D13 Aug 23A · Montpellier2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient33 games · scored 48 · conceded 49
4
6
0-15
7
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
8
11
46-60
7
6
61-75
13
16
76-90
LE Havre33 games · scored 30 · conceded 44
4
6
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
11
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
9
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
