Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lorient61.2%fair odds 1.63
Draw22.2%fair odds 4.51
LE Havre16.6%fair odds 6.01
Expected goals1.99 – 0.94total 2.93
Likeliest score2–010.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lorient ↓ · LE Havre → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lorient goals, columns LE Havre goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.6%9.47
- 1–110.5%9.49
- 1–010.1%9.90
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 3–07.0%14.30
- 3–16.6%15.19
- 0–05.9%17.01
- 1–24.7%21.24
- 2–24.7%21.38
- 0–14.5%22.21
Winning margin
18.6%
Lorient by 3+
fair 5.37
18.9%
Lorient by 2
fair 5.29
23.7%
Lorient by 1
fair 4.23
22.2%
Draw
fair 4.51
10.9%
LE Havre by 1
fair 9.15
4.2%
LE Havre by 2
fair 23.60
1.5%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 68.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Lorient goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LE Havre goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 61.2% | 61.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 21.6% | +0.5 pp |
| LE Havre win | 16.6% | 16.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 57.9% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.2% | 54.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.99 | 2.05 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 0.94 | 0.96 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lorient win61.2%1.63
- Draw22.2%4.51
- LE Havre win16.6%6.01
- Double chance Lorient or draw83.4%1.20
- Double chance Lorient or LE Havre77.8%1.29
- Double chance LE Havre or draw38.8%2.58
- Draw no bet Lorient78.6%1.27
- Draw no bet LE Havre21.4%4.68
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.1%1.78
- Over 3.533.7%2.97
- Over 4.517.3%5.78
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.543.9%2.28
- Under 3.566.3%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes53.2%1.88
- No46.8%2.13
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Lorient win and yes28.0%3.57
- Draw and yes16.3%6.13
- LE Havre win and yes8.8%11.36
Team goals
- Lorient over 0.586.3%1.16
- Lorient over 1.559.1%1.69
- Lorient over 2.532.0%3.13
- LE Havre over 0.561.0%1.64
- LE Havre over 1.524.3%4.12
- LE Havre over 2.57.0%14.32
- Lorient clean sheet39.0%2.56
- LE Havre clean sheet13.7%7.30
- Lorient win to nil33.1%3.02
- LE Havre win to nil7.8%12.77
Handicap
- Lorient −1.537.5%2.67
- Lorient −2.518.6%5.37
- LE Havre +1.562.5%1.60
- LE Havre +2.581.4%1.23
- LE Havre −1.55.7%17.53
- Lorient +1.594.3%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored297
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.583
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right54.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 37.8% | 54.5% |
| 40–50% | 94 | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 54.2% | 50.7% |
| 60–70% | 44 | 64.3% | 68.2% |
| 70–80% | 28 | 73.9% | 64.3% |
| 80%+ | 14 | 86.3% | 78.6% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 231 of 297 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6017 | 0.5893 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.9% | 53.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 231 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓LE Havre 0–1 Marseille32·25·43
- ✓Auxerre 2–1 Nice41·28·31
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- ✗Angers 1–1 Strasbourg30·26·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.