Lorient vs Lille – 30 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 30 · 16:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 7th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

1–7Full time

Lille 6th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 23). Lorient had 6.1 days of rest, Lille 5.8 and had to travel 572 km.

Away travel572 kmRest days6.1 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lorient21%

Draw24%

Lille54%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.79

Lorient21%

Draw25%

Lille54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Lorient21%

Draw24%

Lille54%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.79

Lorient16%

Draw22%

Lille62%

Expected goals 0.93 – 2.01

Lorient21%

Draw25%

Lille54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Over 2.5 54% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 46

Team strength

Lorient

Lille

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

28 AttackIn forecast 42

45 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Lille

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

50% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

18.00 ShotsContext 13.50

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

28% On target shareContext 26%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

69% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 15%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

5.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

— BlocksContext 3.00

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

75% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

468 PassesContext 422

403 Accurate passesContext 347

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.06

16.00 FoulsContext 9.50

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

4.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

— xGVia Att/Def 1.36

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

— Goals minus xGContext +0.24

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.80 ShotsContext 11.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

34% On target shareContext 33%

9.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

64% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.20 Shots allowedContext 8.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.11 BlocksContext 2.43

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

66% Save rateContext 73%

49% PossessionIn forecast 55%

442 PassesContext 505

369 Accurate passesContext 433

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.90 FoulsContext 10.60

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,037 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lille

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel572 km1,210 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug	5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	572 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,037 km	1,210 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.2	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

21B. Kamara(G)

25A. Faye 3M. Talbi 2Igor Silva

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 77P. Katseris

29D. Karim 15A. Tosin

28S. Soumano

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier

21B. André 32A. Bouaddi

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 14M. Broholm

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lille+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.00

Lille · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Lorient wins0 draws3 Lille wins

Goals per game1.67 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

14 Jan 2024Lille3–0Lorient
27 Aug 2023Lorient4–1Lille
2 Apr 2023Lille3–1Lorient
2 Oct 2022Lorient2–1Lille
19 Jan 2022Lille3–1Lorient
10 Sep 2021Lorient2–1Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.50	2.84
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Lorient	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.50	2.84
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.50
Match total	6.00	7.50	9.88
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	4.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	6.50	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2

	Lorient	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.00
Corners conceded	3.90	3.40
Match total	8.70	8.40	9.88
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.60
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	5.10	3.40	3.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.57league 3.26

Red cards0.37league 0.32

Cards 5+37%league 37%

Fouls26.1league 23.2

Penalties0.37league 0.37

Home wins57%league 68%

Lorient8 with this referee

Record3-0-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

L7 Apr 24A · Montpellier0–26
W4 Feb 24A · Metz2–11
L12 Nov 23A · Clermont Foot0–12
L3 Sep 23A · LE Havre0–30
L4 Mar 22H · Lyon1–41

Lille1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W16 Feb 25A · Rennes2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.