Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Lorient. Lorient had 5.8 days of rest, Marseille 7.8 and had to travel 842 km.
Away travel842 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lorient27%
Draw26%
Marseille47%
Lorient30%
Draw27%
Marseille44%
Lorient29%
Draw27%
Marseille45%
Lorient21%
Draw24%
Marseille55%
Lorient28%
Draw26%
Marseille46%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 95
Team strength
Lorient
Marseille
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
28
AttackIn forecast
48
45
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientMarseille
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
69%
Scored inContext
79%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.93
ShotsContext
14.17
3.66
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.48
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
63%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.45
Shots allowedContext
9.93
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
2.92
BlocksContext
2.62
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
64%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
423
PassesContext
542
360
Accurate passesContext
480
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.66
FoulsContext
12.21
13.28
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
14.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
34%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
57%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
62%
Save rateContext
59%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
482
PassesContext
473
417
Accurate passesContext
407
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.20
FoulsContext
12.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel842 km343 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 842 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,343 km | 343 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
32N. Adjei
5B. Meïté
44D. Yongwa
8Noah Cadiou
62A. Avom
77P. Katseris
10P. Pagis
12B. Dieng
17J. Makengo
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
23P. Højbjerg
20H. Traorè
9A. Gouiri
10M. Greenwood
17P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Marseille+2.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-1
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.43
Marseille · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-7
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Lens | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Nice | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 5–1 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 6–2 H |
| Points | 38 of 84 · 1.36 per game | 49 of 84 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Lorient wins1 draws6 Marseille wins
Goals per game0.71 – 3.00
Over 2.586%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 12 Sep 2025Marseille4–0Lorient
- 12 May 2024Marseille3–1Lorient
- 10 Dec 2023Lorient2–4Marseille
- 9 Apr 2023Lorient0–0Marseille
- 14 Jan 2023Marseille3–1Lorient
- 8 May 2022Lorient0–3Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.31 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 66% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Lorient | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.37 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 8.48 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 11/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 9/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 6/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.72 | 2.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.06 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 17/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Lorient | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.34 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.70 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.09league 3.66
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+22%league 36%
Fouls20.5league 23.8
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins49%league 48%
Lorient3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L10 Dec 23H · Marseille2–45
- W19 Feb 23H · Ajaccio3–00
- L12 Dec 21A · Metz1–42
Marseille13 with this referee
Record9-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D29 Nov 25H · Toulouse2–22
- D4 May 25A · Lille1–12
- L26 Jan 25A · Nice0–21
- W23 Nov 24A · Lens3–13
- W28 Apr 24H · Lens2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient29 games · scored 38 · conceded 44
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
6
11
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
14
76-90
Marseille29 games · scored 58 · conceded 38
7
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
6
46-60
9
6
61-75
17
13
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
