Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lorient were slight favourites.
Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 16). Lorient had 21 days of rest, Metz 21.9 and had to travel 717 km.
Away travel717 kmRest days21 · 21.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lorient51%
Draw25%
Metz23%
Lorient52%
Draw25%
Metz23%
Lorient51%
Draw26%
Metz23%
Lorient44%
Draw27%
Metz30%
Lorient52%
Draw25%
Metz23%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Lorient
Metz
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
28
AttackIn forecast
11
45
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientMetz
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.31
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
63%
Scored inContext
63%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.63
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
66%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.64
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.38
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.81
2.64
BlocksContext
2.87
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
60%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
402
PassesContext
443
340
Accurate passesContext
382
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.19
FoulsContext
10.69
14.31
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
8.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
42%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
64%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.83
8.90
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
2.30
BlocksContext
2.60
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
397
PassesContext
433
335
Accurate passesContext
370
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.70
8.70
FoulsContext
10.10
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel717 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 21.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 717 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.1 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
2Igor Silva
32N. Adjei
5B. Meïté
11T. Le Bris
8Noah Cadiou
6L. Abergel
93J. Mvuka
10P. Pagis
28S. Soumano
17J. Makengo
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
4Urie-Michel Mboula
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
11M. Mbaye
23I. Sané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Metz+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Metz · Away
0.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 3.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lyon | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Nantes | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 H | L 2–5 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Lille | L 1–7 H | L 1–6 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 11 of 48 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Lorient wins0 draws2 Metz wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 4 Feb 2024Metz1–2Lorient
- 26 Nov 2023Lorient2–3Metz
- 20 Apr 2022Lorient1–0Metz
- 12 Dec 2021Metz4–1Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 3.38 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 63% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Lorient | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.36 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 7.93 | 9.25 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 5/14 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 4/14 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.06 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 3.06 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Lorient | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.10 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.40 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.69
Red cards0.00league 0.36
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls26.7league 24.2
Penalties0.14league 0.47
Home wins43%league 50%
LorientNo previous matches with this referee.
Metz1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 25H · LE Havre0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient16 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
7
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
11
76-90
Metz16 games · scored 17 · conceded 37
3
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
13
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 12 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
8
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
