Lorient vs Nice – 30 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 30 · 16:15 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 16th · 11 pts · 13 played LDLDD

3–1Full time

Nice 10th · 17 pts · 13 played WWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nice were slight favourites.

Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Lorient. Lorient had 7 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 939 km.

Away travel939 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lorient31%

Draw27%

Nice41%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.42

Lorient33%

Draw27%

Nice40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Lorient33%

Draw28%

Nice39%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.36

Lorient25%

Draw26%

Nice49%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.59

Lorient32%

Draw27%

Nice42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.48

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 49

Team strength

Lorient

Nice

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

28 AttackIn forecast 26

45 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Nice

1.15 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

2.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.77

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

62% Scored inContext 85%

8% Clean sheetsContext 15%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.77

3.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.08

31% On target shareContext 38%

7.23 Shots in the boxContext 6.58

67% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.10

9.69 Shots allowedContext 15.62

4.15 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.31

2.73 BlocksContext 5.15

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

55% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

407 PassesContext 395

345 Accurate passesContext 331

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.85 FoulsContext 12.38

14.85 Fouls sufferedContext 12.62

2.23 Yellow cardsContext 2.23

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.89

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.10 ShotsContext 9.30

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

32% On target shareContext 34%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

65% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.50 Shots allowedContext 17.80

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

2.56 BlocksContext 6.40

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.75

56% Save rateContext 73%

42% PossessionIn forecast 40%

401 PassesContext 345

338 Accurate passesContext 282

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.50 FoulsContext 11.30

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km298 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel939 km2,663 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	939 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	298 km	2,663 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

44D. Yongwa 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

28S. Soumano

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-5-2

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 33A. Mendy

47Tiago Gouveia 10S. Diop 99S. Abdul Samed 20T. Louchet 92J. Clauss

9T. Moffi 25M. Cho

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient-1.3 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Nice+1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 2.17
Conceded: 2.17

Nice · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 2.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Nice
Nantes	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Toulouse	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 H	L 1–4 A
Paris FC	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Monaco	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
LE Havre	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Marseille	L 0–4 A	L 1–5 H
Lille	L 1–7 H	W 2–0 H
Rennes	W 4–0 H	W 2–1 A
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Points	11 of 33 · 1.00 per game	14 of 33 · 1.27 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Lorient wins2 draws3 Nice wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

19 Apr 2024Nice3–0Lorient
20 Aug 2023Lorient1–1Nice
19 Mar 2023Nice1–1Lorient
30 Oct 2022Lorient1–2Nice
17 Apr 2022Nice2–1Lorient
22 Sep 2021Lorient1–0Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.15	1.38
Conceded per game	2.08	1.77
Match goals	3.23	3.15	2.63
Over 1.5	92%	77%
Over 2.5	46%	62%	49%
Over 3.5	38%	46%
Both teams scored	54%	69%	54%
Clean sheets	8%	15%
Failed to score	38%	15%
Games	13	13

	Lorient	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.90	2.10
Match goals	2.90	3.40	2.63
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	3.64	4.50
Corners conceded	3.64	6.58
Match total	7.28	11.08	9.39
Over 8.5	27% 3/11	92% 11/12
Over 9.5	18% 2/11	75% 9/12
Over 10.5	18% 2/11	50% 6/12
Cards
Cards	2.31	2.31
Opponent cards	2.23	2.08
Match total	4.54	4.39	4.12
Over 3.5	69% 9/13	77% 10/13
Over 4.5	54% 7/13	46% 6/13

	Lorient	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	3.40
Corners conceded	3.25	7.50
Match total	7.13	10.90	9.39
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	13% 1/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.10	2.30
Match total	4.00	4.60	4.12
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.76league 3.77

Red cards0.37league 0.31

Cards 5+41%league 37%

Fouls26.3league 24.1

Penalties0.37league 0.50

Home wins53%league 50%

Lorient9 with this referee

Record3-0-6 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds2

L30 Aug 25H · Lille1–73
L7 Apr 24A · Montpellier0–26
W4 Feb 24A · Metz2–11
L12 Nov 23A · Clermont Foot0–12
L3 Sep 23A · LE Havre0–30

Nice5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

W8 Feb 25H · Lens2–01
L18 Aug 24A · Auxerre1–20
D1 Oct 23H · Stade Brestois 290–01
W20 Feb 22H · Angers1–02
L22 Sep 21A · Lorient0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.