Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Paris FC. Lorient had 21 days of rest, Paris FC 21.1 and had to travel 441 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel441 kmRest days21 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lorient37%
Draw25%
Paris FC37%
Lorient43%
Draw26%
Paris FC31%
Lorient37%
Draw26%
Paris FC37%
Lorient30%
Draw25%
Paris FC45%
Lorient37%
Draw25%
Paris FC37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 71%
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 110
Team strength
Lorient
Paris FC
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
46
45
DefenceIn forecast
38
23
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientParis FC
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.27
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.50
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.67
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
67%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.60
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.80
BlocksContext
2.80
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
77%
Save rateContext
83%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
486
PassesContext
563
412
Accurate passesContext
497
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.20
FoulsContext
14.00
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
38%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
61%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.80
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.44
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
77%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
434
PassesContext
492
368
Accurate passesContext
424
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.82
8.70
FoulsContext
11.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
DLWDL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Paris FC
DWWDW
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel441 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 74 · 11 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +3.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 441 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
95S. Touré
3M. Talbi
32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi
2A. Georgen
8Noah Cadiou
20D. Sylla
10I. Jensen
17J. Makengo
42Mamadou Koné
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho
7P. Pagis
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −1.9% · Defence line −4.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF P. Katseris Rotation 6.81 Def −3.5%
- MID N. Mbamba Rotation 6.93 Att −1.9% Def −1.1%
Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −4.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Sangui Rotation 6.48 Def −4.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Paris FC+0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Paris FC · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Nice | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Lorient wins1 draws1 Paris FC wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 5 Apr 2026Lorient1–1Paris FC
- 3 Oct 2025Paris FC2–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lorient | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 7.50 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lorient | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 8.00 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.10 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.13
Red cards0.26league 0.15
Cards 5+35%league 26%
Fouls24.0league 24.1
Penalties0.32league 0.28
Home wins40%league 43%
Lorient4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Aug 25H · Rennes4–06
- L31 Mar 24H · Stade Brestois 290–11
- W30 Apr 23A · Paris Saint Germain3–13
- D11 Jan 23H · Monaco2–21
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Sep 26H · Lyon0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient5 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Paris FC5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
