Lorient vs Paris Saint Germain – 29 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 Wed, Oct 29 · 18:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 16th · 8 pts · 9 played DWLDL

1–1Full time

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 20 pts · 9 played LWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 21). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lorient had 3.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4.1 and had to travel 441 km.

Away travel441 kmRest days3.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lorient6%

Draw12%

Paris Saint Germain82%

Expected goals 0.68 – 2.92

Lorient6%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain80%

Expected goals 0.66 – 2.70

Lorient6%

Draw12%

Paris Saint Germain82%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.87

Lorient4%

Draw9%

Paris Saint Germain87%

Expected goals 0.61 – 3.27

Lorient6%

Draw13%

Paris Saint Germain80%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.75

Over 2.5 70% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 95

Team strength

Lorient

Paris Saint Germain

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

28 AttackIn forecast 91

45 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Paris Saint Germain

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

56% Scored inContext 89%

11% Clean sheetsContext 56%

12.33 ShotsContext 16.22

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.22

32% On target shareContext 38%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

68% Box shareContext 52%

11% ConversionContext 13%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.20

9.78 Shots allowedContext 9.11

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

2.71 BlocksContext 3.00

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

52% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 71%

433 PassesContext 762

370 Accurate passesContext 703

85% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.64 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.56 FoulsContext 9.67

15.56 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.89 Yellow cardsContext 0.78

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +1.17

60% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.30 ShotsContext 16.20

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.40

32% On target shareContext 46%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

67% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 19%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

9.70 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.63 BlocksContext 3.00

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

57% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 68%

427 PassesContext 704

361 Accurate passesContext 647

85% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.40 FoulsContext 10.30

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km427 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel441 km1,010 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	427 km	1,010 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

5-4-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

43Arsène Kouassi 44D. Yongwa 3M. Talbi 2Igor Silva 93J. Mvuka

10P. Pagis 6L. Abergel 8Noah Cadiou 29D. Karim

9M. Bamba

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

25Nuno Mendes 4Beraldo 5Marquinhos 6I. Zabarnyi

47Quentin Ndjantou 33W. Zaïre-Emery 24S. Mayulu

14D. Doué 10M. Dembélé 49I. Mbaye

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient-0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Paris Saint Germain+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 2.75

Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain
Angers	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 H	W 3–0 A
Marseille	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
Lille	L 1–7 H	D 1–1 A
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game	10 of 15 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Lorient wins2 draws3 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.17 – 2.17 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 17%

24 Apr 2024Lorient1–4Paris Saint Germain
12 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain0–0Lorient
30 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain1–3Lorient
6 Nov 2022Lorient1–2Paris Saint Germain
3 Apr 2022Paris Saint Germain5–1Lorient
22 Dec 2021Lorient1–1Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.11
Conceded per game	2.33	0.89
Match goals	3.67	3.00	3.60
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	70%
Over 3.5	56%	22%
Both teams scored	44%	33%	47%
Clean sheets	11%	56%
Failed to score	44%	11%
Games	9	9

	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.11
Conceded per game	2.33	0.89
Match goals	3.67	3.00	3.60
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	70%
Over 3.5	56%	22%
Both teams scored	44%	33%	47%
Clean sheets	11%	56%
Failed to score	44%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.13
Corners conceded	3.50	3.25
Match total	7.00	8.38	9.51
Over 8.5	13% 1/8	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	13% 1/8	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	3.00	0.78
Opponent cards	2.22	1.44
Match total	5.22	2.22	4.12
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	78% 7/9	0% 0/9

	Lorient	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.30
Corners conceded	3.33	3.20
Match total	7.44	8.50	9.51
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.30	2.00
Match total	5.30	3.00	4.12
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.80

Red cards0.26league 0.30

Cards 5+40%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 24.8

Penalties0.43league 0.53

Home wins44%league 53%

Lorient7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L24 Feb 24H · Nantes0–10
W27 Aug 23H · Lille4–12
D9 Apr 23H · Marseille0–00
D5 Feb 23H · Angers0–02
L29 Dec 22H · Montpellier0–23

Paris Saint Germain15 with this referee

Record9-3-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 3

L25 Apr 25H · Nice1–33
W15 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–00
W2 Nov 24H · Lens1–01
W16 Aug 24A · LE Havre4–10
D27 Apr 24H · LE Havre3–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.