Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lorient
16th · 8 pts · 9 played
DWLDL
1–1Full time
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 20 pts · 9 played
LWDDW
Lorient5.6%fair odds 17.84
Draw12.1%fair odds 8.25
Paris Saint Germain82.3%fair odds 1.22
Expected goals0.68 – 2.92total 3.60
Likeliest score0–211.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lorient ↓ · Paris Saint Germain → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lorient goals, columns Paris Saint Germain goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.6%8.60
- 0–311.3%8.84
- 0–48.3%12.11
- 1–27.9%12.61
- 1–37.7%12.95
- 0–17.7%13.03
- 1–15.7%17.48
- 1–45.6%17.74
- 0–54.8%20.73
- 1–53.3%30.38
Winning margin
0.3%
Lorient by 3+
fair 365.35
1.2%
Lorient by 2
fair 85.01
4.2%
Lorient by 1
fair 24.07
12.1%
Draw
fair 8.25
18.7%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 5.34
21.5%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 4.64
42.0%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 2.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Lorient goals
51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
Paris Saint Germain goals
5%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
33%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 5.6% | 6.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 12.1% | 13.4% | -1.3 pp |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 82.3% | 80.4% | +1.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 66.3% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.1% | 46.0% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Lorient | 0.68 | 0.67 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 2.92 | 2.75 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lorient win5.6%17.84
- Draw12.1%8.25
- Paris Saint Germain win82.3%1.22
- Double chance Lorient or draw17.7%5.64
- Double chance Lorient or Paris Saint Germain87.9%1.14
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw94.4%1.06
- Draw no bet Lorient6.4%15.68
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain93.6%1.07
Goals
- Over 0.597.0%1.03
- Over 1.587.7%1.14
- Over 2.569.8%1.43
- Over 3.548.5%2.06
- Over 4.529.4%3.40
- Under 1.512.3%8.16
- Under 2.530.2%3.31
- Under 3.551.5%1.94
Both teams to score
- Yes47.1%2.12
- No52.9%1.89
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- Lorient win and yes3.2%31.01
- Draw and yes9.1%10.98
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes34.7%2.88
Team goals
- Lorient over 0.549.5%2.02
- Lorient over 1.515.0%6.68
- Lorient over 2.53.2%31.23
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.594.6%1.06
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.578.9%1.27
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.555.9%1.79
- Lorient clean sheet5.4%18.54
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet50.5%1.98
- Lorient win to nil2.4%42.02
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil47.5%2.10
Handicap
- Lorient −1.51.5%68.96
- Lorient −2.50.3%365.35
- Paris Saint Germain +1.598.5%1.01
- Paris Saint Germain +2.599.7%1.00
- Paris Saint Germain −1.563.6%1.57
- Lorient +1.536.4%2.74
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored81
Favourite won58.0%
Avg chance given to result44.2%
1X2 Brier0.536
Over 2.5 called right59.3%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.0% | 53.8% |
| 40–50% | 26 | 44.4% | 42.3% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 65.2% | 76.9% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.1% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 88.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 54 of 81 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5846 | 0.5781 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 48.1% | 48.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 54 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Rennes 1–2 Nice43·27·30
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- ✓Lille 6–1 Metz78·14·7
- ✓Lens 2–1 Marseille38·27·35
- ✓Monaco 1–0 Toulouse51·26·23
- ✓Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint Germain11·18·71
- ✓Paris FC 1–2 Nantes36·27·36
- ✓Nantes 0–2 Lille22·25·53
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 81 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.