Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 – 19 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 19 · 16:15 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 13th · 7 pts · 7 played LLDWL

3–3Full time

Stade Brestois 29 12th · 8 pts · 7 played LLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 22). Lorient had 15.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 14.9 and had to travel 109 km.

Away travel109 kmRest days15.9 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Lorient32%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2940%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.39

Lorient32%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2941%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Lorient31%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2941%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.39

Lorient26%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2948%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.55

Lorient32%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2941%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.44

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 54

Team strength

Lorient

Stade Brestois 29

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

28 AttackIn forecast 47

45 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Stade Brestois 29

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

57% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.29 ShotsContext 14.43

3.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

34% On target shareContext 30%

7.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.14

68% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.60

10.43 Shots allowedContext 12.29

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

3.20 BlocksContext 4.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

52% Save rateContext 62%

43% PossessionIn forecast 44%

415 PassesContext 367

352 Accurate passesContext 285

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.14 FoulsContext 12.00

15.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

3.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

60% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.60 ShotsContext 13.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 29%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

67% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.40 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.00 BlocksContext 3.89

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

59% Save rateContext 58%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

403 PassesContext 407

336 Accurate passesContext 327

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.50 FoulsContext 11.60

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest15.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Oct	14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

25A. Faye 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

9M. Bamba

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Majecki(G)

2B. Locko 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

7É. Dina Ebimbe 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Stade Brestois 29-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 2.67

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29
Paris FC	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Lille	L 1–7 H	D 3–3 H
Points	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Lorient wins0 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

31 Mar 2024Lorient0–1Stade Brestois 29
20 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Lorient
7 May 2023Lorient2–1Stade Brestois 29
9 Oct 2022Stade Brestois 291–2Lorient
27 Feb 2022Stade Brestois 290–1Lorient
7 Nov 2021Lorient1–2Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.57
Conceded per game	2.29	1.57
Match goals	3.57	3.14	2.59
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	48%
Over 3.5	57%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	53%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.57
Conceded per game	2.29	1.57
Match goals	3.57	3.14	2.59
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	48%
Over 3.5	57%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	53%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	2.83	5.00
Corners conceded	4.17	5.57
Match total	7.00	10.57	9.48
Over 8.5	17% 1/6	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	3.43	1.57
Opponent cards	2.43	1.43
Match total	5.86	3.00	4.05
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	29% 2/7
Over 4.5	86% 6/7	14% 1/7

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.40
Corners conceded	4.44	5.70
Match total	8.33	10.10	9.48
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.30	1.70
Opponent cards	2.40	1.30
Match total	5.70	3.00	4.05
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 54 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.71

Red cards0.28league 0.32

Cards 5+26%league 34%

Fouls26.0league 24.4

Penalties0.31league 0.53

Home wins39%league 54%

Lorient5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

L24 Apr 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–41
W11 Feb 24H · Reims2–01
D17 Sep 23H · Monaco2–20
L23 Apr 23H · Toulouse0–13
D23 Oct 22A · Estac Troyes2–20

Stade Brestois 295 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W3 Dec 23H · Clermont Foot3–01
L11 Mar 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
W29 Jan 23H · Angers4–00
L16 Oct 22A · Nantes1–42
L28 Aug 22H · Montpellier0–71

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.