Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lorient. Lorient had 7.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 6.9 and had to travel 829 km.
Away travel829 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lorient36%
Draw26%
Strasbourg38%
Lorient34%
Draw27%
Strasbourg39%
Lorient37%
Draw26%
Strasbourg37%
Lorient29%
Draw25%
Strasbourg46%
Lorient37%
Draw26%
Strasbourg37%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 87
Team strength
Lorient
Strasbourg
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
28
AttackIn forecast
40
45
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientStrasbourg
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
79%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.93
ShotsContext
10.97
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
34%
On target shareContext
40%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
63%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.04
10.63
Shots allowedContext
11.83
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.85
BlocksContext
3.35
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
65%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
421
PassesContext
511
358
Accurate passesContext
451
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.53
FoulsContext
11.07
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
41%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
55%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.89
11.40
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.89
BlocksContext
4.10
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
65%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
463
PassesContext
521
399
Accurate passesContext
457
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.60
FoulsContext
11.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel829 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 829 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
32N. Adjei
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
77P. Katseris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
8M. Oyedele
6I. Doukouré
24L. Høgsberg
18J. Mwanga
80Gessime Yassine
29S. El Mourabet
83R. Luis
27S. Amo-Ameyaw
11A. Nanasi
19J. Enciso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Strasbourg+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
2.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-1
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.33
Strasbourg · Away
1.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Nice | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Metz | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 40 of 87 · 1.38 per game | 42 of 84 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Lorient wins3 draws2 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 14 Dec 2025Strasbourg0–0Lorient
- 18 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–3Lorient
- 17 Dec 2023Lorient1–2Strasbourg
- 3 Jun 2023Lorient2–1Strasbourg
- 13 Nov 2022Strasbourg1–1Lorient
- 20 Mar 2022Lorient0–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.86 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 62% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 21% | |
| Games | 30 | 29 |
| Lorient | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 8.48 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 11/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 6/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.83 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 17/30 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Lorient | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.70 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.66
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls25.5league 23.7
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins43%league 47%
Lorient6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L3 Oct 25A · Paris FC0–22
- W7 May 23H · Stade Brestois 292–13
- L26 Feb 23H · Auxerre0–12
- W27 Jan 23H · Rennes2–11
- L24 Apr 22A · Rennes0–50
Strasbourg9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D15 Mar 26H · Paris FC0–02
- W16 Feb 25A · Lens2–02
- L21 Apr 24A · Lille0–13
- D28 Jan 24A · Clermont Foot1–13
- W10 Dec 23H · LE Havre2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient30 games · scored 40 · conceded 44
3
5
0-15
5
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
7
11
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
14
76-90
Strasbourg29 games · scored 46 · conceded 37
3
5
0-15
8
5
16-30
9
2
31-45
7
12
46-60
8
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
