Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 21). Lorient had 6.9 days of rest, Toulouse 6.9 and had to travel 593 km.
Away travel593 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Lorient33%
Draw28%
Toulouse40%
Lorient32%
Draw27%
Toulouse41%
Lorient32%
Draw28%
Toulouse40%
Lorient26%
Draw27%
Toulouse47%
Lorient33%
Draw27%
Toulouse40%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Lorient
Toulouse
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
28
AttackIn forecast
45
45
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientToulouse
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
2.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
55%
Scored inContext
73%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.64
ShotsContext
12.82
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
32%
On target shareContext
30%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
68%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.17
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.09
Shots allowedContext
11.73
4.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
2.67
BlocksContext
4.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
55%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
413
PassesContext
339
350
Accurate passesContext
273
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.73
FoulsContext
13.64
14.55
Fouls sufferedContext
11.64
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.00
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
67%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.40
OffsidesContext
1.80
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.88
BlocksContext
4.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
55%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
407
PassesContext
337
346
Accurate passesContext
269
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.40
FoulsContext
13.70
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,509 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Toulouse
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel593 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 593 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,509 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
44D. Yongwa
3M. Talbi
2Igor Silva
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
62A. Avom
93J. Mvuka
10P. Pagis
29D. Karim
15A. Tosin
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
17A. Francis
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
9F. Magri
10G. Gboho
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Toulouse-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 2.40
Toulouse · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 3–6 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Monaco | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lille | L 1–7 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rennes | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Lorient wins2 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 28 Apr 2024Lorient1–2Toulouse
- 3 Dec 2023Toulouse1–1Lorient
- 23 Apr 2023Lorient0–1Toulouse
- 21 Aug 2022Toulouse2–2Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.27 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Lorient | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.10 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.09 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.82 | 4.55 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Lorient | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 7.63 | 9.90 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 3.82
Red cards0.20league 0.30
Cards 5+20%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 24.4
Penalties0.40league 0.49
Home wins60%league 50%
LorientNo previous matches with this referee.
ToulouseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient11 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
61-75
3
10
76-90
Toulouse11 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
61-75
3
10
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
