Ludogorets
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PAOK were slight favourites.
PAOK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 26). Absences weigh more on PAOK. Ludogorets had 14 days of rest, PAOK 14 and had to travel 437 km.
Away travel437 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ludogorets26%
Draw25%
PAOK48%
Ludogorets26%
Draw26%
PAOK48%
Ludogorets25%
Draw25%
PAOK49%
Ludogorets20%
Draw24%
PAOK56%
Ludogorets27%
Draw26%
PAOK47%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Razgrad)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaHoratiu Fesnic
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Ludogorets
PAOK
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
27
AttackIn forecast
45
28
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPAOK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LudogoretsPAOK
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
13.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
30%
On target shareContext
45%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
56%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.33
BlocksContext
2.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
65%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
412
PassesContext
397
342
Accurate passesContext
327
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.60
FoulsContext
12.20
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.78
ShotsContext
13.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
30%
On target shareContext
42%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
59%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
21%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.67
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.43
BlocksContext
2.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
63%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
396
PassesContext
478
325
Accurate passesContext
396
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.67
FoulsContext
11.80
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ludogorets
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PAOK
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel437 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ludogorets |
PAOK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 437 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42.1 | 42 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ludogorets
Confirmed XI
39H. Bonmann(G)
3A. Nedyalkov
4Dinis Almeida
24O. Verdon
17Son
11Caio Vidal
23Deroy Duarte
26F. Kaloč
37B. Tekpetey
14P. Stanić
29E. Bille
PAOK
Confirmed XI
1J. Pavlenka(G)
21A. Baba
4A. Vogliacco
16T. Kędziora
3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté
27M. Ozdoev
11Taison
18L. Ivanušec
77K. Despodov
9F. Chalov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ludogorets
Absences are shown before kick-off
PAOK
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ludogorets+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PAOK-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Ludogorets · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
PAOK · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Ludogorets | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| BSC Young Boys | L 2–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ludogorets | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Ludogorets | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ludogorets | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 7.25 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 11.75 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Ludogorets | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.88 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Horatiu Fesnic Romania · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.11
Red cards0.40league 0.19
Cards 5+80%league 43%
Fouls35.0league 24.6
Penalties0.60league 0.38
Home wins80%league 51%
LudogoretsNo previous matches with this referee.
PAOKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ludogorets5 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
PAOK5 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
0-15
5
16-30
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 29 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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