Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Lyon had 5 days of rest, Angers 5.1 and had to travel 461 km.
Away travel461 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lyon70%
Draw19%
Angers11%
Lyon71%
Draw18%
Angers11%
Lyon71%
Draw18%
Angers10%
Lyon63%
Draw22%
Angers15%
Lyon69%
Draw19%
Angers12%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 117
Team strength
Lyon
Angers
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
55
AttackIn forecast
22
56
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonAngers
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
75%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.25
ShotsContext
7.75
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
43%
On target shareContext
42%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
74%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.25
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
5.25
BlocksContext
3.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
71%
Save rateContext
87%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
457
PassesContext
325
397
Accurate passesContext
268
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.94
15.25
FoulsContext
9.75
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
8.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
67%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.80
BlocksContext
3.30
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
63%
Save rateContext
79%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
503
PassesContext
342
441
Accurate passesContext
282
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.50
FoulsContext
11.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel461 km1,054 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 461 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,133 km | 1,054 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
44Khalis Merah
7A. Karabec
20M. Satriano
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
14Y. Belkhdim
93H. Belkebla
6L. Mouton
17J. Kalumba
35P. Peter
27L. Rao-Lisoa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.8 pp
- Angers+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Angers · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Lyon wins0 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game2.67 – 1.00
Over 2.583%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 17 May 2025Lyon2–0Angers
- 7 Dec 2024Angers0–3Lyon
- 25 Feb 2023Angers1–3Lyon
- 3 Sep 2022Lyon5–0Angers
- 3 Apr 2022Lyon3–2Angers
- 15 Aug 2021Angers3–0Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Lyon | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 8.33 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 2.25 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Lyon | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.78 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 117 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18league 3.44
Red cards0.24league 0.42
Cards 5+28%league 39%
Fouls23.2league 23.4
Penalties0.34league 0.53
Home wins40%league 67%
Lyon8 with this referee
Record1-2-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W16 Feb 24H · Nice1–00
- L2 Dec 23A · Lens2–30
- D8 Oct 23H · Lorient3–30
- L11 Sep 22A · Monaco1–22
- D10 Apr 22A · Strasbourg1–11
Angers5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25H · Strasbourg2–12
- L3 Jun 23A · Nantes0–10
- L9 Oct 22H · Strasbourg2–31
- L26 Jan 22H · Saint Etienne0–11
- W15 Aug 21H · Lyon3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon4 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
3
76-90
Angers4 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
7
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
