Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 21). Lyon usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lyon had 2.8 days of rest, LE Havre 6.9 and had to travel 551 km.
Away travel551 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Lyon68%
Draw19%
LE Havre12%
Lyon68%
Draw20%
LE Havre12%
Lyon69%
Draw19%
LE Havre12%
Lyon61%
Draw22%
LE Havre17%
Lyon67%
Draw20%
LE Havre13%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 58
Team strength
Lyon
LE Havre
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
55
AttackIn forecast
20
56
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonLE Havre
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
80%
Scored inContext
60%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.33
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.73
66%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.09
10.87
Shots allowedContext
10.73
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
4.15
BlocksContext
3.38
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
73%
Save rateContext
62%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
461
PassesContext
381
398
Accurate passesContext
312
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.27
FoulsContext
13.20
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.87
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
41%
On target shareContext
30%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
63%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.63
BlocksContext
3.89
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
77%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
492
PassesContext
361
427
Accurate passesContext
295
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.10
FoulsContext
11.80
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,343 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
LE Havre
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel551 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 551 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
33H. Hateboer
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
44Khalis Merah
17Afonso Moreira
20M. Satriano
10P. Šulc
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
8Y. Kechta
15A. Seko
14R. Ndiaye
45I. Soumaré
70M. Samatta
21Y. Namli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- LE Havre+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-2
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.86
LE Havre · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nantes | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 3–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | L 2–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 2–6 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 42 · 1.50 per game | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Lyon wins1 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 16 Mar 2025Lyon4–2LE Havre
- 20 Oct 2024LE Havre0–4Lyon
- 14 Jan 2024LE Havre3–1Lyon
- 17 Sep 2023Lyon0–0LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.27 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 53% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 47% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Lyon | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.07 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 4.08 | |
| Match total | 10.71 | 8.54 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Lyon | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.01 | 8.90 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.90 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.69
Red cards0.28league 0.32
Cards 5+28%league 35%
Fouls26.0league 24.1
Penalties0.31league 0.47
Home wins38%league 51%
Lyon6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Apr 25H · Rennes4–10
- W16 Feb 25A · Montpellier4–11
- W7 Dec 24A · Angers3–02
- W6 Oct 24H · Nantes2–01
- W23 Feb 24A · Metz2–12
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W1 Sep 24H · Auxerre3–11
- L21 Apr 24H · Metz0–12
- L17 Mar 24A · Clermont Foot1–25
- W5 Nov 23A · Toulouse2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon15 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
8
76-90
LE Havre15 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
