Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lens. Lyon had 7 days of rest, Lens 4 and had to travel 542 km.
Away travel542 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Lyon40%
Draw24%
Lens36%
Lyon47%
Draw26%
Lens27%
Lyon40%
Draw25%
Lens35%
Lyon32%
Draw24%
Lens43%
Lyon40%
Draw25%
Lens35%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 128
Team strength
Lyon
Lens
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
55
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonLens
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
85%
Scored inContext
82%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.82
ShotsContext
16.09
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.42
38%
On target shareContext
34%
8.23
Shots in the boxContext
11.16
67%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.68
11.36
Shots allowedContext
10.61
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
4.04
BlocksContext
3.50
3.03
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
77%
Save rateContext
72%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
460
PassesContext
458
395
Accurate passesContext
390
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.85
FoulsContext
12.45
13.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
21.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
36%
On target shareContext
30%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
14.70
64%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.90
Shots allowedContext
9.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.14
BlocksContext
3.20
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
82%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
450
PassesContext
494
388
Accurate passesContext
425
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.80
FoulsContext
10.20
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km735 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel542 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 542 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 735 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 79 | 96.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
5O. Mangala
16Abner
10P. Šulc
17Afonso Moreira
9Endrick
Lens
Confirmed XI
16M. Gorgelin(G)
20M. Sarr
4N. Čelik
32Kyllian Antonio
27A. Masuaku
21A. Haidara
5A. Bulatović
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
7F. Sotoca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lens+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.31points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-3
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 0.88
Lens · Away
1.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-5
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Rennes | W 4–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Angers | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 57 of 96 · 1.78 per game | 67 of 96 · 2.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Lyon wins2 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 16 Aug 2025Lens0–1Lyon
- 4 May 2025Lyon1–2Lens
- 15 Sep 2024Lens0–0Lyon
- 3 Mar 2024Lyon0–3Lens
- 2 Dec 2023Lens3–2Lyon
- 12 Feb 2023Lyon2–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.94 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 18% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Lyon | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 6.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.58 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.87 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 21/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 11/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.06 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.61 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.09 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 24/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Lyon | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.56 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 128 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.66
Red cards0.26league 0.26
Cards 5+45%league 36%
Fouls22.1league 23.6
Penalties0.34league 0.37
Home wins52%league 46%
Lyon16 with this referee
Record7-2-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds2
- L22 Mar 26H · Monaco1–22
- W1 Feb 26H · Lille1–00
- W31 Aug 25H · Marseille1–02
- L20 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne1–24
- W9 Feb 25H · Reims4–02
Lens19 with this referee
Record7-6-6
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds2
- L4 Apr 26A · Lille0–32
- W4 Oct 25A · Auxerre2–17
- W17 May 25H · Monaco4–01
- L11 Apr 25H · Reims0–21
- D28 Sep 24H · Nice0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon33 games · scored 53 · conceded 36
6
3
0-15
9
2
16-30
12
7
31-45
10
4
46-60
7
5
61-75
9
15
76-90
Lens33 games · scored 62 · conceded 35
6
7
0-15
6
7
16-30
11
6
31-45
15
3
46-60
9
7
61-75
15
5
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
