Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lorient. Lyon had 7.2 days of rest, Lorient 7.1 and had to travel 671 km.
Away travel671 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lyon51%
Draw27%
Lorient22%
Lyon59%
Draw23%
Lorient18%
Lyon51%
Draw27%
Lorient22%
Lyon44%
Draw28%
Lorient28%
Lyon50%
Draw27%
Lorient23%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 123
Team strength
Lyon
Lorient
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
55
AttackIn forecast
28
56
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonLorient
1.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
82%
Scored inContext
71%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.68
ShotsContext
10.89
4.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.08
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
66%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.15
11.07
Shots allowedContext
10.43
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.92
BlocksContext
2.96
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
75%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
470
PassesContext
423
404
Accurate passesContext
359
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.21
FoulsContext
9.54
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.20
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
36%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
62%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.33
BlocksContext
3.56
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
76%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
489
PassesContext
464
423
Accurate passesContext
397
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.80
FoulsContext
8.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km923 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel671 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 671 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 923 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
34Steeve Kango
23T. Morton
17Afonso Moreira
99N. Nartey
98A. Maitland-Niles
18R. Ghezzal
77R. Yaremchuk
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
32N. Adjei
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
8Noah Cadiou
62A. Avom
11T. Le Bris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lorient+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-3
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 0.77
Lorient · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 48 of 81 · 1.78 per game | 35 of 81 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Lyon wins3 draws2 Lorient wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.29
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 7 Dec 2025Lorient1–0Lyon
- 9 Mar 2024Lorient0–2Lyon
- 8 Oct 2023Lyon3–3Lorient
- 5 Mar 2023Lyon0–0Lorient
- 7 Sep 2022Lorient3–1Lyon
- 4 Mar 2022Lorient1–4Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.46 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.86 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Lyon | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 3.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.73 | 8.16 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 18/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 23% 6/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 21/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Lyon | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 8.60 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.66
Red cards0.21league 0.27
Cards 5+46%league 35%
Fouls24.4league 23.8
Penalties0.41league 0.37
Home wins54%league 48%
Lyon16 with this referee
Record7-3-6
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 5
Reds3
- L9 Nov 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–36
- L10 May 25A · Monaco0–24
- W9 Mar 25A · Nice2–02
- D26 Jan 25A · Nantes1–11
- L15 Dec 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
Lorient6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L26 Oct 25A · Angers0–20
- W3 Mar 24A · Rennes2–11
- L28 Oct 23A · Reims0–13
- L6 Nov 22H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- L31 Aug 22A · Lens2–53
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon28 games · scored 41 · conceded 29
5
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
10
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
12
76-90
Lorient28 games · scored 38 · conceded 42
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
6
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
14
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
