Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lyon51.1%fair odds 1.96
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Lorient22.4%fair odds 4.47
Expected goals1.58 – 0.96total 2.54
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lyon ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lyon goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–011.8%8.47
- 2–09.8%10.18
- 2–19.4%10.58
- 0–08.5%11.74
- 0–16.9%14.39
- 1–25.8%17.37
- 3–05.2%19.35
- 3–15.0%20.12
- 2–24.5%22.01
Winning margin
11.3%
Lyon by 3+
fair 8.86
15.8%
Lyon by 2
fair 6.31
24.0%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.17
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
14.4%
Lorient by 1
fair 6.96
5.9%
Lorient by 2
fair 17.01
2.1%
Lorient by 3+
fair 46.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Lyon goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Lorient goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 51.1% | 50.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Lorient win | 22.4% | 22.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 45.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.7% | 49.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.58 | 1.55 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 0.96 | 0.96 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lyon win51.1%1.96
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Lorient win22.4%4.47
- Double chance Lyon or draw77.6%1.29
- Double chance Lyon or Lorient73.5%1.36
- Double chance Lorient or draw48.9%2.05
- Draw no bet Lyon69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet Lorient30.5%3.28
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.7%1.38
- Over 2.546.6%2.14
- Over 3.525.1%3.98
- Over 4.511.4%8.75
- Under 1.527.3%3.67
- Under 2.553.4%1.87
- Under 3.574.9%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes49.7%2.01
- No50.3%1.99
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Lyon win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes18.0%5.56
- Lorient win and yes10.3%9.73
Team goals
- Lyon over 0.579.4%1.26
- Lyon over 1.546.8%2.14
- Lyon over 2.521.1%4.74
- Lorient over 0.561.8%1.62
- Lorient over 1.525.0%4.00
- Lorient over 2.57.3%13.63
- Lyon clean sheet38.2%2.62
- Lorient clean sheet20.6%4.85
- Lyon win to nil29.7%3.37
- Lorient win to nil12.1%8.26
Handicap
- Lyon −1.527.1%3.69
- Lyon −2.511.3%8.86
- Lorient +1.572.9%1.37
- Lorient +2.588.7%1.13
- Lorient −1.58.0%12.46
- Lyon +1.592.0%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored257
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 37.9% | 52.5% |
| 40–50% | 81 | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 50–60% | 61 | 54.2% | 49.2% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 64.5% | 70.7% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.9% | 68.0% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 86.9% | 88.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 204 of 257 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5877 | 0.5794 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 204 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Toulouse 0–4 Lille27·30·43
- ✗Nice 1–1 LE Havre46·27·27
- ✓Rennes 2–1 Angers67·20·12
- ✗Auxerre 0–0 Nantes53·27·20
- ✓Marseille 3–1 Metz69·19·12
- ✗Paris FC 4–1 Monaco22·25·53
- ✓Monaco 2–1 Marseille56·24·20
- ✗Metz 0–0 Nantes39·29·33
- ✗LE Havre 1–1 Auxerre36·30·34
- ✗Lorient 1–1 Paris FC50·26·24
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 257 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.