Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lyon had 8 days of rest, Marseille 8.2 and had to travel 277 km.
Away travel277 kmRest days8 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lyon47%
Draw26%
Marseille27%
Lyon47%
Draw26%
Marseille27%
Lyon47%
Draw26%
Marseille27%
Lyon39%
Draw26%
Marseille34%
Lyon47%
Draw26%
Marseille27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 99
Team strength
Lyon
Marseille
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
55
AttackIn forecast
48
56
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonMarseille
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
2.31
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
100%
Scored inContext
50%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
46%
On target shareContext
24%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
71%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.00
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
86%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
453
PassesContext
643
397
Accurate passesContext
589
88%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
7.34
Team ratingContext
7.03
16.00
FoulsContext
10.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
15.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
36%
On target shareContext
39%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
67%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.50
BlocksContext
2.13
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
61%
Save rateContext
58%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
519
PassesContext
605
458
Accurate passesContext
544
88%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.10
12.50
FoulsContext
11.10
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel277 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 277 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 12 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
44Khalis Merah
7A. Karabec
8C. Tolisso
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
22T. Weah
4C. Egan-Riley
5L. Balerdi
62A. Murillo
23P. Højbjerg
8A. Gomes
20H. Traorè
26B. Nadir
10M. Greenwood
97P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Marseille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Marseille · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lyon wins0 draws5 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 2 Feb 2025Marseille3–2Lyon
- 22 Sep 2024Lyon2–3Marseille
- 4 Feb 2024Lyon1–0Marseille
- 6 Dec 2023Marseille3–0Lyon
- 23 Apr 2023Lyon1–2Marseille
- 6 Nov 2022Marseille1–0Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lyon | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 10.00 | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Lyon | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.66 | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 3.35
Red cards0.25league 0.31
Cards 5+48%league 35%
Fouls22.3league 23.1
Penalties0.32league 0.50
Home wins52%league 65%
Lyon13 with this referee
Record5-2-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L20 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne1–24
- W9 Feb 25H · Reims4–02
- L21 Apr 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
- L6 Dec 23A · Marseille0–32
- L1 Oct 23A · Reims0–22
Marseille10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- L27 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- W10 Mar 24H · Nantes2–02
- W6 Dec 23H · Lyon3–01
- D17 Sep 23H · Toulouse0–02
- W19 Mar 23A · Reims2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Marseille2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
6
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 26 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
