Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Monaco. Lyon had 2.8 days of rest, Monaco 7.7 and had to travel 298 km.
Away travel298 kmRest days2.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d4 · 1
Lyon27%
Draw27%
Monaco46%
Lyon46%
Draw27%
Monaco28%
Lyon28%
Draw27%
Monaco44%
Lyon21%
Draw26%
Monaco53%
Lyon30%
Draw28%
Monaco42%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 122
Team strength
Lyon
Monaco
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
55
AttackIn forecast
45
56
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonMonaco
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
85%
Scored inContext
77%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.58
ShotsContext
11.73
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.08
38%
On target shareContext
35%
8.21
Shots in the boxContext
8.04
68%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.04
Shots allowedContext
12.69
3.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
3.77
BlocksContext
3.54
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
74%
Save rateContext
66%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
467
PassesContext
466
402
Accurate passesContext
392
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.31
FoulsContext
12.38
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
11.15
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
44%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
65%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.44
BlocksContext
4.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
481
PassesContext
416
418
Accurate passesContext
342
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.10
FoulsContext
10.90
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,424 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Monaco
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel298 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar | 7.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 298 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,424 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
17Afonso Moreira
5O. Mangala
8C. Tolisso
33H. Hateboer
44Khalis Merah
9Endrick
10P. Šulc
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
9F. Balogun
11M. Akliouche
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Monaco+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Monaco · Away
1.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | W 5–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Points | 44 of 75 · 1.76 per game | 43 of 75 · 1.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Lyon wins0 draws4 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.33
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 3 Jan 2026Monaco1–3Lyon
- 10 May 2025Monaco2–0Lyon
- 24 Aug 2024Lyon0–2Monaco
- 28 Apr 2024Lyon3–2Monaco
- 15 Dec 2023Monaco0–1Lyon
- 19 May 2023Lyon3–1Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.15 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 58% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 23% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Lyon | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 8.96 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 17/24 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 4.19 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 20/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Lyon | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 9.78 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.70
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 37%
Fouls22.1league 23.8
Penalties0.33league 0.37
Home wins52%league 49%
Lyon15 with this referee
Record7-2-6
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W1 Feb 26H · Lille1–00
- W31 Aug 25H · Marseille1–02
- L20 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne1–24
- W9 Feb 25H · Reims4–02
- L21 Apr 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
Monaco11 with this referee
Record5-1-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L14 Dec 25A · Marseille0–11
- L17 May 25A · Lens0–42
- L18 Dec 24H · Paris Saint Germain2–42
- W25 Feb 24A · Lens3–23
- L13 Jan 24H · Reims1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon26 games · scored 40 · conceded 27
5
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
12
76-90
Monaco26 games · scored 45 · conceded 37
3
2
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
5
46-60
10
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
