Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lyon. Lyon had 8 days of rest, Nice 7.2 and had to travel 293 km.
Away travel293 kmRest days8 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lyon67%
Draw20%
Nice12%
Lyon66%
Draw20%
Nice13%
Lyon67%
Draw20%
Nice12%
Lyon60%
Draw23%
Nice17%
Lyon66%
Draw21%
Nice13%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 84
Team strength
Lyon
Nice
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
55
AttackIn forecast
26
56
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonNice
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
86%
Scored inContext
76%
52%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.90
ShotsContext
11.33
4.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
39%
On target shareContext
37%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
7.15
67%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.81
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.52
Shots allowedContext
14.95
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.19
4.06
BlocksContext
4.33
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
75%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
458
PassesContext
419
394
Accurate passesContext
350
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.67
FoulsContext
12.43
13.24
Fouls sufferedContext
12.24
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
13.60
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
44%
On target shareContext
34%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
70%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.10
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.30
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
76%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
491
PassesContext
415
425
Accurate passesContext
339
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.10
FoulsContext
11.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,047 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel293 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,047 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
33H. Hateboer
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
16Abner
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
99N. Nartey
10P. Šulc
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
2A. Abdi
4Dante
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
92J. Clauss
24C. Vanhoutte
8M. Sanson
20T. Louchet
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nice+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-2
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.70
Nice · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-7
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 1–5 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 42 of 60 · 2.10 per game | 20 of 60 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Lyon wins2 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 11%
- 18 Oct 2025Nice3–2Lyon
- 9 Mar 2025Nice0–2Lyon
- 1 Dec 2024Lyon4–1Nice
- 16 Feb 2024Lyon1–0Nice
- 27 Aug 2023Nice0–0Lyon
- 3 Jun 2023Nice3–1Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 52% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 52% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Lyon | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.37 | 4.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.65 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 10.50 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.19 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 16/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Lyon | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.50 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.63
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+42%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 24.0
Penalties0.26league 0.40
Home wins37%league 49%
Lyon12 with this referee
Record5-4-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Nov 25A · Auxerre0–03
- L5 Oct 25H · Toulouse1–21
- W30 Aug 24H · Strasbourg4–33
- D30 Mar 24H · Reims1–12
- L26 Jan 24H · Rennes2–32
Nice8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L16 Aug 25H · Toulouse0–12
- D2 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–12
- W20 Sep 24H · Saint Etienne8–00
- W28 Apr 24A · Strasbourg3–13
- W1 Feb 23A · Lens1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon21 games · scored 34 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Nice21 games · scored 27 · conceded 38
3
8
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
