Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Lyon had 7 days of rest, Paris FC 7.2 and had to travel 395 km.
Away travel395 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lyon72%
Draw18%
Paris FC10%
Lyon75%
Draw16%
Paris FC9%
Lyon71%
Draw18%
Paris FC11%
Lyon65%
Draw21%
Paris FC14%
Lyon71%
Draw18%
Paris FC11%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 92
Team strength
Lyon
Paris FC
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
55
AttackIn forecast
46
56
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonParis FC
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
88%
Scored inContext
71%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.46
ShotsContext
11.13
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
39%
On target shareContext
32%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.92
67%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.88
Shots allowedContext
11.67
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
3.95
BlocksContext
3.73
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
73%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
462
PassesContext
491
397
Accurate passesContext
422
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.46
FoulsContext
10.75
13.21
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.30
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
45%
On target shareContext
34%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
67%
Box shareContext
56%
19%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.57
10.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.22
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
491
PassesContext
474
423
Accurate passesContext
403
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.80
FoulsContext
10.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,308 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel395 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 395 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,308 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
33H. Hateboer
16Abner
44Khalis Merah
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
7A. Karabec
45Rémi Himbert
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
23R. Matondo
33P. Lees-Melou
18M. Munetsi
27M. Simon
11J. Krasso
93N. Ikoné
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Paris FC-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.64
Paris FC · Away
1.08points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 2–4 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 44 of 69 · 1.91 per game | 25 of 69 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Lyon wins1 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game3.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Oct 2025Paris FC3–3Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.83 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 54% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 58% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Lyon | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.10 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 9.33 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 16/22 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.92 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 19/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Lyon | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 8.80 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15league 3.71
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+23%league 36%
Fouls20.6league 24.0
Penalties0.36league 0.38
Home wins49%league 49%
Lyon15 with this referee
Record8-1-6
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.5
Pens for · against6 · 3
Reds1
- W25 Jan 26A · Metz5–20
- W26 Oct 25H · Strasbourg2–10
- W23 Aug 25H · Metz3–00
- W5 Apr 25H · Lille2–13
- L23 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–31
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25A · Monaco1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon24 games · scored 39 · conceded 26
5
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
12
76-90
Paris FC24 games · scored 28 · conceded 40
4
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
11
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
9
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
