Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 59). Lyon come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Lyon had 3 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 8.2 and had to travel 395 km.
Away travel395 kmRest days3 · 8.2Matches / 14d4 · 2
Lyon17%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain62%
Lyon20%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain55%
Lyon17%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain61%
Lyon12%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain69%
Lyon20%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain56%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 109
Team strength
Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
55
AttackIn forecast
91
56
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonParis Saint Germain
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.82
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
91%
Scored inContext
91%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
11.73
ShotsContext
16.82
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.27
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.73
65%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.18
Shots allowedContext
8.36
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.70
BlocksContext
3.00
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
69%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
72%
462
PassesContext
768
399
Accurate passesContext
710
86%
Pass accuracyContext
93%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.02
14.55
FoulsContext
10.09
15.09
Fouls sufferedContext
9.09
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.09
0.27
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
17.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
63%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.10
Shots allowedContext
8.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.67
BlocksContext
2.88
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
80%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
507
PassesContext
697
439
Accurate passesContext
643
87%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.10
FoulsContext
10.80
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km4,934 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Paris Saint Germain
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel395 km881 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 395 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,934 km | 881 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
21R. Kluivert
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
98A. Maitland-Niles
18R. Ghezzal
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
24S. Mayulu
19K. Lee
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Paris Saint Germain · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Nice | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | W 6–3 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Lyon wins1 draws6 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 23 Feb 2025Lyon2–3Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Dec 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lyon
- 21 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain4–1Lyon
- 3 Sep 2023Lyon1–4Paris Saint Germain
- 2 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain0–1Lyon
- 18 Sep 2022Lyon0–1Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 0.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.73 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 27% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 36% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.91 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.73 | 8.56 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 1.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.73 | 1.27 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 2.36 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 0% 0/11 | |
| Lyon | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.67 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.85
Red cards0.22league 0.31
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.50
Home wins52%league 51%
Lyon15 with this referee
Record7-3-5
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 5
Reds2
- L10 May 25A · Monaco0–24
- W9 Mar 25A · Nice2–02
- D26 Jan 25A · Nantes1–11
- L15 Dec 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
- L22 Sep 24H · Marseille2–34
Paris Saint Germain16 with this referee
Record11-3-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds2
- D5 Oct 25A · Lille1–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Nantes1–01
- W1 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 295–20
- W15 Dec 24H · Lyon3–12
- W1 Sep 24A · Lille3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon11 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Paris Saint Germain11 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
