Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 40). Lyon usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lyon had 15.2 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 14.1 and had to travel 772 km.
Away travel772 kmRest days15.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lyon57%
Draw23%
Stade Brestois 2919%
Lyon57%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2919%
Lyon58%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2919%
Lyon50%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2925%
Lyon56%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2920%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 51
Team strength
Lyon
Stade Brestois 29
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
55
AttackIn forecast
47
56
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonStade Brestois 29
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
82%
Scored inContext
65%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.06
ShotsContext
11.94
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.19
Shots in the boxContext
7.65
66%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.85
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.47
Shots allowedContext
11.59
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.07
BlocksContext
3.13
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
75%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
456
PassesContext
379
393
Accurate passesContext
302
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.12
FoulsContext
13.35
13.94
Fouls sufferedContext
10.76
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.82
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
37%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
64%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.86
8.90
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.43
BlocksContext
2.30
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
79%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
495
PassesContext
387
431
Accurate passesContext
313
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.60
FoulsContext
14.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel772 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 772 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
16Abner
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
10P. Šulc
9Endrick
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
2B. Locko
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
14R. Labeau-Lascary
24L. Tousart
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Nantes | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Paris FC | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nice | L 2–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game | 21 of 48 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Lyon wins3 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 2 Nov 2025Stade Brestois 290–0Lyon
- 2 Mar 2025Lyon2–1Stade Brestois 29
- 11 Jan 2025Stade Brestois 292–1Lyon
- 14 Apr 2024Lyon4–3Stade Brestois 29
- 23 Sep 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Lyon
- 1 Feb 2023Lyon0–0Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.94 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 47% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Lyon | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.57 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 4.95 | 3.53 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 14/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Lyon | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.77 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.65
Red cards0.35league 0.33
Cards 5+39%league 36%
Fouls26.0league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.45
Home wins53%league 50%
Lyon3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W16 Aug 25A · Lens1–03
- L28 Mar 25A · Strasbourg2–42
- W4 Mar 22A · Lorient4–10
Stade Brestois 298 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25H · Montpellier1–01
- W26 Jan 25A · LE Havre1–03
- W30 Nov 24H · Strasbourg3–13
- W10 Dec 23A · Metz1–02
- D1 Oct 23A · Nice0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon17 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
8
76-90
Stade Brestois 2917 games · scored 23 · conceded 27
4
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
