Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 49). Lyon had 3.1 days of rest, Strasbourg 9 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days3.1 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lyon51%
Draw25%
Strasbourg24%
Lyon50%
Draw26%
Strasbourg24%
Lyon51%
Draw25%
Strasbourg24%
Lyon44%
Draw26%
Strasbourg30%
Lyon50%
Draw26%
Strasbourg24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 84
Team strength
Lyon
Strasbourg
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
55
AttackIn forecast
40
56
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonStrasbourg
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
100%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.75
ShotsContext
11.25
4.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
44%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
71%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
19%
1.17
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.63
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
5.14
BlocksContext
3.29
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
67%
Save rateContext
72%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
485
PassesContext
482
422
Accurate passesContext
421
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.91
15.38
FoulsContext
11.75
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
100%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.20
ShotsContext
11.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
42%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
71%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.44
BlocksContext
3.33
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
79%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
528
PassesContext
493
464
Accurate passesContext
433
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.90
FoulsContext
12.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Strasbourg
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel377 km794 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 586 km | 794 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
6F. Tessmann
23T. Morton
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7A. Karabec
10P. Šulc
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
24L. Høgsberg
23M. Sarr
6I. Doukouré
7Diego Moreira
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
22G. Doué
19J. Enciso
42A. Ouattara
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Strasbourg · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Lyon wins1 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.88
Over 2.588%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Mar 2025Strasbourg4–2Lyon
- 30 Aug 2024Lyon4–3Strasbourg
- 19 May 2024Lyon2–1Strasbourg
- 13 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–1Lyon
- 28 Apr 2023Strasbourg1–2Lyon
- 14 Jan 2023Lyon1–2Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 3.38 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lyon | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.38 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.13 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 11.51 | 7.88 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 4.26 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Lyon | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 7.89 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.81
Red cards0.20league 0.29
Cards 5+23%league 38%
Fouls20.7league 24.7
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins50%league 53%
Lyon13 with this referee
Record6-1-6
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.3
Pens for · against4 · 3
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25H · Metz3–00
- W5 Apr 25H · Lille2–13
- L23 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–31
- L11 Jan 25A · Stade Brestois 291–22
- W19 May 24H · Strasbourg2–11
Strasbourg8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Apr 25A · Monaco0–03
- L2 Nov 24A · Saint Etienne0–21
- W25 Aug 24H · Rennes3–12
- L19 May 24A · Lyon1–21
- W19 Mar 23H · Auxerre2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon8 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Strasbourg8 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
