Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 36). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Lyon had 2.8 days of rest, Toulouse 7.8 and had to travel 368 km.
Away travel368 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Lyon60%
Draw23%
Toulouse17%
Lyon60%
Draw23%
Toulouse17%
Lyon61%
Draw22%
Toulouse16%
Lyon53%
Draw25%
Toulouse22%
Lyon59%
Draw23%
Toulouse18%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 77
Team strength
Lyon
Toulouse
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
55
AttackIn forecast
45
56
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonToulouse
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
83%
83%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.67
ShotsContext
11.83
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
40%
On target shareContext
35%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
73%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
13.33
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
5.00
BlocksContext
5.17
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
77%
Save rateContext
53%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
461
PassesContext
345
402
Accurate passesContext
283
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.79
16.67
FoulsContext
13.67
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
80%
80%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.10
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
41%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
68%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.30
BlocksContext
4.60
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
84%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
487
PassesContext
352
425
Accurate passesContext
287
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.10
FoulsContext
12.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,516 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Toulouse
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel368 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 368 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,516 km | 990 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7A. Karabec
20M. Satriano
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
12W. Kamanzi
77M. Sauer
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
9F. Magri
15A. Dønnum
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Toulouse+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.00
Toulouse · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Lyon wins2 draws0 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.83 – 0.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 18 Jan 2025Lyon0–0Toulouse
- 29 Sep 2024Toulouse1–2Lyon
- 15 Mar 2024Toulouse2–3Lyon
- 10 Dec 2023Lyon3–0Toulouse
- 14 Apr 2023Toulouse1–2Lyon
- 7 Oct 2022Lyon1–1Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 3.33 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lyon | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.38 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.33 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 38% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 13% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 88% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.16 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 4.34 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Lyon | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.80 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 3.78
Red cards0.27league 0.34
Cards 5+43%league 40%
Fouls24.1league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.48
Home wins38%league 57%
Lyon10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Aug 24H · Strasbourg4–33
- D30 Mar 24H · Reims1–12
- L26 Jan 24H · Rennes2–32
- L23 Sep 23A · Stade Brestois 290–11
- D5 Mar 23H · Lorient0–01
Toulouse8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W16 Aug 25A · Nice1–03
- W17 May 25A · Saint Etienne3–22
- D2 Feb 25H · Nice1–12
- W13 Dec 24H · Saint Etienne2–13
- W27 Oct 24A · Montpellier3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon6 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Toulouse6 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
3
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
