UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 20:00 TSC Arena, Bačka Topola
Maccabi Tel Aviv 34th · 1 pts · 4 played
0–6Full time
Lyon 10th · 9 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Lyon were slight favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 19). Maccabi Tel Aviv had 21 days of rest, Lyon 4.3 and had to travel 1,136 km.

Away travel1,136 kmRest days21 · 4.3Matches / 14d0 · 1
Maccabi Tel Aviv21%
Draw24%
Lyon55%
Expected goals 1.06 – 1.84
Maccabi Tel Aviv21%
Draw25%
Lyon54%
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.76
Maccabi Tel Aviv21%
Draw24%
Lyon56%
Expected goals 1.03 – 1.83
Maccabi Tel Aviv16%
Draw21%
Lyon63%
Expected goals 0.94 – 2.06
Maccabi Tel Aviv22%
Draw25%
Lyon54%
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.77
Over 2.5 55% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bačka Topola)

No weather data yet

Referee · EstoniaKristo Tohver
  • Cards per match 6.9
  • Penalties per match 0.56
  • Matches 16

Team strength

Maccabi Tel AvivLyon
19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
19 AttackIn forecast 55
20 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maccabi Tel AvivLyon
0.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.38
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.93 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
25% Scored inContext 75%
25% Clean sheetsContext 75%
9.50 ShotsContext 13.25
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
34% On target shareContext 34%
5.75 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
64% Box shareContext 67%
3% ConversionContext 9%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.25 Shots allowedContext 10.00
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75
3.00 BlocksContext 2.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
64% Save rateContext 93%
43% PossessionIn forecast 63%
365 PassesContext 595
308 Accurate passesContext 527
84% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.94
13.00 FoulsContext 11.75
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
50% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.50 ShotsContext 12.00
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
41% On target shareContext 32%
5.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
64% Box shareContext 59%
6% ConversionContext 12%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.00 Shots allowedContext 9.80
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
3.25 BlocksContext 3.33
2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
63% Save rateContext 76%
47% PossessionIn forecast 57%
365 PassesContext 498
308 Accurate passesContext 432
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.78
13.00 FoulsContext 11.50
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Lyon
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,136 km499 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Maccabi Tel Aviv Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov4.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium—1,136 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km499 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 11 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one13.93

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
90R. Mishpati(G)
3R. Revivo 13R. Shlomo 4Heitor 6T. Asante
36I. Shahar 23B. Lederman
29Hélio Varela 42D. Peretz 77O. Davida
34S. Abu Farkhi
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Lyon Confirmed XI
4-3-3
40R. Descamps(G)
3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 6F. Tessmann 98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso 23T. Morton 39Mathys de Carvalho
16Abner 20M. Satriano 10P. Šulc
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Maccabi Tel Aviv Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.6 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Lyon-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
3.00
Lyon · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Maccabi Tel AvivLyonForecast
Scored per game 0.251.25
Conceded per game 2.000.50
Match goals 2.251.75 2.90
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 50%0% 55%
Over 3.5 25%0%
Both teams scored 25%0% 56%
Clean sheets 25%75%
Failed to score 75%25%
Games44
Maccabi Tel AvivLyonForecast
Scored per game 0.251.40
Conceded per game 2.001.40
Match goals 2.252.80 2.90
Over 1.5 75%80%
Over 2.5 50%50% 55%
Over 3.5 25%30%
Both teams scored 25%50% 56%
Clean sheets 25%40%
Failed to score 75%30%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Maccabi Tel AvivLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won3.003.75
Corners conceded5.252.25
Match total8.256.009.08
Over 8.550% 2/425% 1/4
Over 9.550% 2/40% 0/4
Over 10.525% 1/40% 0/4
Cards
Cards1.502.25
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.003.754.26
Over 3.550% 2/450% 2/4
Over 4.50% 0/450% 2/4
Maccabi Tel AvivLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.175.20
Corners conceded5.673.90
Match total9.849.109.08
Over 8.567% 4/650% 5/10
Over 9.567% 4/640% 4/10
Over 10.550% 3/640% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.802.10
Opponent cards2.502.20
Match total4.304.304.26
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kristo Tohver Estonia · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.63league 4.06
Red cards0.25league 0.16
Cards 5+75%league 41%
Fouls21.9league 24.7
Penalties0.56league 0.40
Home wins31%league 49%
Maccabi Tel Aviv1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W5 Aug 25A · Hamrun Spartans2–13
Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Maccabi Tel Aviv4 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
Lyon4 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 5 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3 1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
Ludogorets Celta Vigo 32 Aston Villa BSC Young Boys 21 Lille Dinamo Zagreb 40 Feyenoord Celtic 13 FC Porto Nice 30 AS Roma FC Midtjylland 21 Plzen SC Freiburg 00 Fenerbahce Ferencvarosi TC 11 PAOK Brann 11 Nottingham Forest Malmo FF 30 Rangers SC Braga 11 GO Ahead Eagles VfB Stuttgart 04 Bologna Red Bull Salzburg 41 Real Betis Utrecht 21 FK Crvena Zvezda FCSB 10 Maccabi Tel Aviv Lyon 06 Panathinaikos Sturm Graz 21 Genk FC Basel 1893 21