Malaga
Attack+15%
Defense risk−6%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Malaga. Malaga were without Diego Murillo. Real Sociedad were without J. Aramburu. Malaga had 8.9 days of rest, Real Sociedad 3 and had to travel 762 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel762 kmRest days8.9 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 2
Malaga39%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad34%
Malaga37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad35%
Malaga39%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad34%
Malaga32%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad42%
Malaga40%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad35%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Málaga)
22°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.2 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 75%
RefereeLuis Bestard Servera
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
Malaga
Real Sociedad
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
28
AttackIn forecast
62
31
DefenceIn forecast
48
20
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack+17%
Defense risk−18%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
MalagaReal Sociedad
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
50%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.63
ShotsContext
13.25
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
25%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
60%
Box shareContext
56%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.13
Shots allowedContext
16.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.75
BlocksContext
4.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
68%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
481
PassesContext
453
418
Accurate passesContext
384
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.50
FoulsContext
12.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.60
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
27%
On target shareContext
37%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
62%
Box shareContext
55%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.20
BlocksContext
3.90
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
71%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
478
PassesContext
474
411
Accurate passesContext
401
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.70
FoulsContext
12.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malaga
DDLLD
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 3 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
Real Sociedad
LLWWD
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel762 km1,958 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malaga |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9La Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 762 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,958 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
15Ángel Recio
20F. Calero Villa
31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez
8Carlos Dotor
23Izan Merino
10David Larrubia
9Chupe
21Adrián Niño
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
19M. Sarr
6Jon Martín
22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malaga
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −5.8% · Defence line −15.1% of weighted minutes
- DEF Diego Murillo Core 7.30 Def −13.3%
- MID Juan Cruz Rotation 6.43 Att −2.5% Def −1.1%
- MID A. Ochoa Rotation 6.66 Att −1.4% Def −0.6%
- ATT Julen Lobete Rotation 6.68 Att −1.9%
Real Sociedad
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −2.7% · Defence line −17.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Aramburu Starter 6.57 Def −14.5%
- MID Pablo Marín Rotation 6.46 Att −2.7% Def −1.4%
- DEF Luken Beitia Rotation 6.27 Def −1.3%
- DEF Odriozola Depth 7.00 Def −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Malaga+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Malaga · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Real Sociedad · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Malaga | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–4 A | L 1–4 A |
| Deportivo La Coruna | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.38 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 7.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 12.25 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 5.26 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.70 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Bestard Servera 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.19league 4.38
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+73%league 56%
Fouls27.4league 24.8
Penalties0.19league 0.34
Home wins27%league 44%
Malaga3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D6 Sep 26H · Levante0–04
- W2 May 26A · Eibar4–23
- W23 Jan 26H · Burgos3–03
Real SociedadNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malaga8 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Real Sociedad8 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
5
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
