Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid – 21 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 21 · 15:15 Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca

Mallorca 19th · 1 pts · 4 played LDLL

1–1Full time

Atletico Madrid 13th · 5 pts · 4 played LDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 45). Mallorca had 5.8 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 7.8 and had to travel 549 km.

Away travel549 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Mallorca22%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid52%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.63

Mallorca22%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid53%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.73

Mallorca22%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid53%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.64

Mallorca17%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.83

Mallorca22%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid53%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.72

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Palma de Mallorca)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 22

Team strength

Mallorca

Atletico Madrid

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

50 AttackIn forecast 82

59 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Mallorca

Atletico Madrid

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

75% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.75 ShotsContext 12.00

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

43% On target shareContext 40%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

71% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.25 Shots allowedContext 7.00

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.50 BlocksContext 1.67

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

69% Save rateContext 60%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

383 PassesContext 577

312 Accurate passesContext 504

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.50 FoulsContext 13.25

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.20 ShotsContext 12.50

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

33% On target shareContext 46%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

68% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 15%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.11

20.10 Shots allowedContext 8.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

5.50 BlocksContext 2.50

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

81% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 58%

393 PassesContext 542

319 Accurate passesContext 473

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.20 FoulsContext 11.50

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Mallorca

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km407 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel549 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Sep	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	549 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	407 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Mallorca Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 4M. Kumbulla 21Raíllo 24M. Valjent 2Mateu Morey

10Darder 8Manu Morlanes 12Samú Costa

7V. Muriqi 11T. Asano

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 15C. Lenglet 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

23N. González 8Pablo Barrios 6Koke 20G. Simeone

22G. Raspadori 19J. Alvarez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Mallorca Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Mallorca+0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Atletico Madrid-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Mallorca · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Atletico Madrid · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid
Espanyol	L 2–3 A	L 1–2 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Mallorca wins0 draws5 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.63 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

1 Feb 2025Atletico Madrid2–0Mallorca
10 Nov 2024Mallorca0–1Atletico Madrid
4 May 2024Mallorca0–1Atletico Madrid
25 Nov 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Mallorca
26 Apr 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Mallorca
9 Nov 2022Mallorca1–0Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.25
Conceded per game	2.25	1.00
Match goals	3.25	2.25	2.61
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	25%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	75%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.25
Conceded per game	2.25	1.00
Match goals	3.25	2.25	2.61
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	25%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	75%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	6.75
Corners conceded	4.25	1.75
Match total	9.00	8.50	9.53
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.25
Opponent cards	2.25	3.00
Match total	4.75	5.25	4.20
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4

	Mallorca	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	6.00
Corners conceded	6.67	2.80
Match total	10.34	8.80	9.53
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.40	1.90
Match total	3.60	3.60	4.20
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 3.88

Red cards0.05league 0.29

Cards 5+45%league 40%

Fouls24.0league 24.5

Penalties0.27league 0.33

Home wins50%league 48%

Mallorca4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.3.8 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

D14 May 24A · Osasuna1–11
W3 Mar 24H · Girona1–05
D7 Oct 23H · Valencia1–12
L26 Aug 23A · Granada CF2–37

Atletico Madrid1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W12 Nov 23H · Villarreal3–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.