Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Mallorca. Mallorca had 8 days of rest, Espanyol 5.7 and had to travel 204 km.
Away travel204 kmRest days8 · 5.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Mallorca44%
Draw28%
Espanyol28%
Mallorca42%
Draw27%
Espanyol31%
Mallorca45%
Draw28%
Espanyol28%
Mallorca37%
Draw28%
Espanyol35%
Mallorca45%
Draw26%
Espanyol29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 48
Team strength
Mallorca
Espanyol
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
50
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaEspanyol
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
81%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.37
ShotsContext
12.63
3.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.26
39%
On target shareContext
34%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.89
Shots allowedContext
12.07
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.59
4.67
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
70%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
373
PassesContext
356
298
Accurate passesContext
284
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.78
FoulsContext
13.44
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
12.52
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.40
ShotsContext
13.30
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
31%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
72%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.60
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.30
BlocksContext
2.89
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
56%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
389
PassesContext
379
310
Accurate passesContext
307
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.70
FoulsContext
12.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,018 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel204 km835 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 204 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,018 km | 835 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
21Raíllo
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
18C. Pickel
4Urko González
14Ramon Terrats
8Edu Expósito
24T. Dolan
19Kike García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Espanyol+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.31
Espanyol · Away
1.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 78 · 0.96 per game | 34 of 78 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Mallorca wins1 draws4 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.43
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 15 Sep 2025Espanyol3–2Mallorca
- 15 Mar 2025Mallorca2–1Espanyol
- 5 Oct 2024Espanyol2–1Mallorca
- 25 Feb 2023Espanyol2–1Mallorca
- 28 Oct 2022Mallorca1–1Espanyol
- 20 Mar 2022Espanyol1–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.74 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 52% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 59% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Mallorca | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.36 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.92 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 8.61 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 84% 21/25 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 11/25 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.44 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 11/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Mallorca | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.22 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 8.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 4.21
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+31%league 47%
Fouls21.9league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins48%league 47%
Mallorca4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Getafe1–00
- D24 May 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–02
- D19 May 24H · Almeria2–22
- W16 Mar 24H · Granada CF1–02
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 25H · Elche1–04
- W18 Apr 25H · Getafe1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca27 games · scored 31 · conceded 44
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
4
11
31-45
1
2
46-60
9
3
61-75
9
13
76-90
Espanyol27 games · scored 34 · conceded 40
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
10
31-45
10
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
10
7
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
