Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Mallorca had 8 days of rest, Levante 6.9 and had to travel 260 km.
Away travel260 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Mallorca45%
Draw28%
Levante27%
Mallorca46%
Draw27%
Levante28%
Mallorca44%
Draw28%
Levante27%
Mallorca38%
Draw29%
Levante33%
Mallorca46%
Draw26%
Levante28%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
Mallorca
Levante
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
55
59
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaLevante
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
78%
Scored inContext
78%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.67
ShotsContext
10.56
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
43%
On target shareContext
33%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
61%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.33
Shots allowedContext
16.11
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.78
BlocksContext
4.33
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
74%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
358
PassesContext
336
286
Accurate passesContext
265
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.67
FoulsContext
14.22
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
41%
On target shareContext
35%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
61%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.60
Shots allowedContext
16.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.30
BlocksContext
4.30
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
79%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
360
PassesContext
338
286
Accurate passesContext
265
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.90
FoulsContext
14.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,577 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Levante
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel260 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 260 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,577 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
8Manu Morlanes
17J. Virgili
10Darder
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
5Unai Elguezabal
22J. Toljan
10Pablo Martínez
16K. Arriaga
12Unai Vencedor
17Víctor García
15G. Koyalipou
21E. Eyong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Levante-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Levante · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Mallorca wins0 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 8 Jan 2022Levante2–0Mallorca
- 2 Oct 2021Mallorca1–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Mallorca | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.01 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.77 | 4.00 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Mallorca | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.00 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.90 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.11
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+43%league 45%
Fouls23.5league 24.9
Penalties0.23league 0.33
Home wins37%league 45%
Mallorca4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Apr 25A · Barcelona0–11
- D30 Mar 24A · Valencia0–02
- D20 Jan 24A · Villarreal1–12
- L4 Nov 23A · Real Betis0–24
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca9 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Levante9 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
