Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sevilla. Mallorca had 8.3 days of rest, Sevilla 9.1 and had to travel 789 km.
Away travel789 kmRest days8.3 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Mallorca43%
Draw28%
Sevilla29%
Mallorca45%
Draw27%
Sevilla28%
Mallorca42%
Draw28%
Sevilla30%
Mallorca36%
Draw28%
Sevilla36%
Mallorca44%
Draw26%
Sevilla29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 36
Team strength
Mallorca
Sevilla
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
50
AttackIn forecast
48
59
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaSevilla
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
76%
Scored inContext
76%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.33
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
39%
On target shareContext
35%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
63%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.25
13.95
Shots allowedContext
10.57
4.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
4.10
BlocksContext
3.56
3.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.42
73%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
370
PassesContext
416
294
Accurate passesContext
342
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.71
FoulsContext
14.81
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
12.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
44%
On target shareContext
39%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
66%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.90
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.50
BlocksContext
2.75
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
352
PassesContext
412
271
Accurate passesContext
338
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.50
FoulsContext
14.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel789 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 9.1La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 789 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,098 km | 946 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
17J. Virgili
10Darder
11T. Asano
7V. Muriqi
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
15Fábio Cardoso
2J. Carmona Navarro
16Juanlu Sánchez
19B. Mendy
14Peque Fernández
18L. Agoumé
17N. Maupay
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sevilla-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.30
Sevilla · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 60 · 0.90 per game | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Mallorca wins4 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.78 – 0.89
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 44%
- 18 Oct 2025Sevilla1–3Mallorca
- 24 Feb 2025Sevilla1–1Mallorca
- 27 Aug 2024Mallorca0–0Sevilla
- 22 Apr 2024Sevilla2–1Mallorca
- 9 Dec 2023Mallorca1–0Sevilla
- 11 Feb 2023Sevilla2–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.90 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Mallorca | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.90 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 16/20 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.62 | 5.24 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Mallorca | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.78 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 9.60 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.70 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.17
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+58%league 45%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins47%league 47%
MallorcaNo previous matches with this referee.
Sevilla4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Sep 25H · Villarreal1–22
- D17 Feb 24A · Valencia0–01
- L23 Dec 23A · Atletico Madrid0–13
- D28 Oct 23A · Cadiz2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca21 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
4
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
8
31-45
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
8
8
76-90
Sevilla21 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
3
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
11
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
