Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Mallorca. Mallorca had 8.7 days of rest, Villarreal 8 and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmRest days8.7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Mallorca31%
Draw28%
Villarreal41%
Mallorca31%
Draw27%
Villarreal42%
Mallorca33%
Draw28%
Villarreal39%
Mallorca25%
Draw27%
Villarreal49%
Mallorca31%
Draw26%
Villarreal43%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Mallorca
Villarreal
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
50
AttackIn forecast
76
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaVillarreal
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
76%
Scored inContext
85%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.00
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
38%
6.81
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
66%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.62
14.35
Shots allowedContext
12.03
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.38
BlocksContext
4.09
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
71%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
378
PassesContext
397
305
Accurate passesContext
328
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.29
FoulsContext
11.76
12.03
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.40
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
40%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
70%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.90
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.00
BlocksContext
3.90
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
68%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
400
PassesContext
390
334
Accurate passesContext
322
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.00
FoulsContext
10.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km538 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 1 May | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 538 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
5Omar Mascarell
24M. Valjent
2Mateu Morey
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
7V. Muriqi
15Zito Luvumbo
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
4Rafa Marín
15S. Mouriño
11Alfon González
16T. Partey
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-1.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Villarreal+2.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.71points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-4
- Scored
- 1.59
- Conceded
- 1.18
Villarreal · Away
1.47points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-6
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.41
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 38 of 99 · 1.15 per game | 65 of 99 · 1.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Mallorca wins2 draws5 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 44%
- 22 Nov 2025Villarreal2–1Mallorca
- 20 Jan 2025Villarreal4–0Mallorca
- 14 Sep 2024Mallorca1–2Villarreal
- 20 Jan 2024Villarreal1–1Mallorca
- 18 Aug 2023Mallorca0–1Villarreal
- 18 Feb 2023Mallorca4–2Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 3.03 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 59% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 62% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 15% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Mallorca | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.59 | 4.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.53 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 8.93 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 26/32 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 18/32 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 14/32 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 4.47 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 20/34 | 65% 22/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 16/34 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Mallorca | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.78 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.20 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 4.30
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+40%league 47%
Fouls25.0league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins38%league 49%
Mallorca5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W18 Oct 25A · Sevilla3–11
- W26 May 24A · Getafe2–12
- D24 Feb 24A · Alaves1–12
- D13 Jan 24H · Celta Vigo1–14
- D12 Aug 23A · Las Palmas1–12
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Mar 26H · Elche2–11
- L17 Jan 26A · Real Betis0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca34 games · scored 42 · conceded 51
4
6
0-15
5
9
16-30
8
12
31-45
3
3
46-60
11
7
61-75
11
14
76-90
Villarreal34 games · scored 64 · conceded 39
8
3
0-15
10
4
16-30
14
6
31-45
12
8
46-60
10
7
61-75
10
11
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
