Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 2026 · 16:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City
1–2 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.34 – 1.77
Aston Villa
  • A. Semenyo 23’
  • 47’, 61’ O. Watkins
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Aston Villa come from behind to beat Manchester City

Manchester City entered as favourites and led 1–0 at half-time through a Semenyo goal. But Watkins struck twice to turn it around for Aston Villa, who won 2–1. Aston Villa finished with the higher xG (1.77 vs 1.34). On the chances created, Manchester City deserved more: 1.1 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Manchester City60%
Draw20%
Aston Villa ✓20%

Model vs reality

Manchester City goals
1
Model 2.32 · xG 1.34
Aston Villa goals
2
Model 1.31 · xG 1.77
Total goals
3
Model 3.63 · xG 3.11
Score 1–2
5%
Most likely 2–1 (9%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 70%
Both scored
Yes
Model 66%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchO. WatkinsAston Villa · 2 goals
9.3
  • RefereeAndy Madley
  • VenueEtihad Stadium
  • Table before kick-offManchester City 2nd · Aston Villa 4th

Timeline

  1. A. Semenyo 1–0
    23’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. ⇄ M. CashFor Andrés García
    46’
  4. O. Watkins 1–1
    47’
  5. ⇄ M. CherkiFor A. Semenyo
    58’
  6. ⇄ M. KovačićFor Bernardo Silva
    59’
  7. O. Watkins 1–2Assist R. Barkley
    61’
  8. VAR O. WatkinsGoal confirmed
    63’
  9. ⇄ Y. TielemansFor Douglas Luiz
    73’
  10. ⇄ Pau TorresFor V. Lindelöf
    73’
  11. ⇄ A. OnanaFor L. Bogarde
    73’
  12. ⇄ J. DokuFor T. Reijnders
    77’
  13. ⇄ R. Aït-NouriFor N. Aké
    77’
  14. ⇄ J. GvardiolFor J. Stones
    78’
  15. R. LewisYellow card · Foul
    82’
  16. ⇄ J. McGinnFor R. Barkley
    86’
  17. VAR P. FodenGoal cancelled
    90+2’
  18. Full time · 1–2

Team stats

Manchester City16 shots · 10 in box, 6 outside
Aston Villa12 shots · 9 in box, 3 outside
Manchester CityAston Villa
53% Possession 47%
1.34 Expected goals (xG) 1.77
1.11 Expected points (xPts) 1.66
16 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 5
7 Shots off target 5
6 Blocked shots 2
10 Shots inside the box 9
6 Shots outside the box 3
481 Passes 440
89% Pass accuracy 90%
9 Corners 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Fouls 4
1 Offsides 1
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
6.62 Team rating 7.07

Line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-2-2

16.3 J. Trafford(G)
66.7 N. Aké ↓77’ 36.7 Rúben Dias 56.5 J. Stones ↓78’ 826.0 R. Lewis
206.9 Bernardo Silva ↓59’ 147.3 Nico González
266.6 Savinho 427.5 A. Semenyo ↓58’
46.3 T. Reijnders ↓77’ 476.5 P. Foden
  • 1J. Trafford (G)6.3
  • 6N. Aké↓77’6.7
  • 3Rúben Dias6.7
  • 5J. Stones↓78’6.5
  • 82R. Lewis6.0
  • 20Bernardo Silva↓59’6.9
  • 14Nico González7.3
  • 26Savinho6.6
  • 42A. Semenyo↓58’7.5
  • 4T. Reijnders↓77’6.3
  • 47P. Foden6.5

Substitutes used

  • 11J. Doku↑77’6.6
  • 21R. Aït-Nouri↑77’7.0
  • 24J. Gvardiol↑78’6.6
  • 8M. Kovačić↑59’6.6
  • 10M. Cherki↑58’6.3

Unused: M. Bettinelli, M. Nunes, O. Marmoush, M. Alleyne

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

406.9 M. Bizot(G)
226.6 I. Maatsen 56.9 T. Mings 36.6 V. Lindelöf ↓73’ 166.6 Andrés García ↓46’
217.2 Douglas Luiz ↓73’ 266.7 L. Bogarde ↓73’
107.9 E. Buendía 66.7 R. Barkley A↓86’ 316.3 L. Bailey
119.3★ O. Watkins
  • 40M. Bizot (G)6.9
  • 22I. Maatsen6.6
  • 5T. Mings6.9
  • 3V. Lindelöf↓73’6.6
  • 16Andrés García↓46’6.6
  • 21Douglas Luiz↓73’7.2
  • 26L. Bogarde↓73’6.7
  • 10E. Buendía7.9
  • 6R. BarkleyA↓86’6.7
  • 31L. Bailey6.3
  • 11O. Watkins ★9.3

Substitutes used

  • 8Y. Tielemans↑73’7.6
  • 14Pau Torres↑73’6.6
  • 24A. Onana↑73’6.6
  • 7J. McGinn↑86’6.9
  • 2M. Cash↑46’6.6

Unused: J. Wright, B. Burrows, L. Digne, George Hemmings

Player stats

Top rated
O. WatkinsAston Villa9.3
2nd
E. BuendíaAston Villa7.9
3rd
A. SemenyoManchester City7.5

Manchester City

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
J. Trafford G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 91% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
N. Aké D 77 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 33 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
Rúben Dias D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 92% 64 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.7
J. Stones D 78 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 35 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.5
R. Lewis D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 75% 51 0 0 0/0 1/2 6.0
Bernardo Silva M 59 0 0 1 (1) 0 92% 26 4 1 0/0 1/0 6.9
Nico González M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 94% 72 3 2 0/0 1/0 7.3
Savinho F 90 0 0 2 (0) 2 86% 29 0 0 1/6 1/2 6.6
A. Semenyo F 58 1 0 1 (1) 1 95% 22 0 1 0/5 0/0 7.5
T. Reijnders M 77 0 0 4 (1) 0 93% 28 0 0 1/3 1/0 6.3
P. Foden M 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 85% 48 0 0 1/3 0/0 6.5
J. Doku F 13 0 0 1 (0) 0 50% 6 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
R. Aït-Nouri D 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 2 0 0/1 0/0 7.0
J. Gvardiol D 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 15 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
M. Kovačić M 31 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 18 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.6
M. Cherki M 32 0 0 1 (0) 0 80% 20 0 0 1/2 1/0 6.3

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Bizot G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 70% 43 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
I. Maatsen D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 91% 33 4 2 1/2 1/0 6.6
T. Mings D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 76 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.9
V. Lindelöf D 73 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 55 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.6
Andrés García D 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 12 4 0 0/0 1/0 6.6
Douglas Luiz M 73 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 46 1 1 0/0 0/1 7.2
L. Bogarde M 73 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 22 0 1 0/0 0/2 6.7
E. Buendía M 90 0 0 2 (1) 3 90% 31 8 3 0/0 1/3 7.9
R. Barkley M 86 0 1 0 (0) 1 88% 26 2 0 0/2 0/0 6.7
L. Bailey M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 78% 18 2 2 0/2 1/1 6.3
O. Watkins F 90 2 0 3 (2) 0 93% 15 1 0 2/3 0/1 9.3
Y. Tielemans M 17 0 0 1 (1) 2 100% 17 2 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
Pau Torres D 17 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 15 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
A. Onana M 17 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 8 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
J. McGinn M 4 0 0 1 (1) 0 83% 6 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
M. Cash D 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 65% 17 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.