Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
2nd · 78 pts · 37 played
WDWWD
1–2Full time
Aston Villa
4th · 62 pts · 37 played
WLLDW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester City. Manchester City had 4.9 days of rest, Aston Villa 3.8 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days4.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City60%
Draw20%
Aston Villa20%
Manchester City51%
Draw25%
Aston Villa23%
Manchester City60%
Draw20%
Aston Villa20%
Manchester City51%
Draw22%
Aston Villa27%
Manchester City57%
Draw22%
Aston Villa21%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 141
Team strength
Manchester CityAston Villa
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
92
AttackIn forecast
83
82
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityAston Villa
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
89%
Scored inContext
73%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
15.65
ShotsContext
12.73
5.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
35%
On target shareContext
35%
11.35
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
73%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.72
OffsidesContext
1.83
9.65
Shots allowedContext
12.81
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.09
BlocksContext
3.89
2.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
74%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
589
PassesContext
450
522
Accurate passesContext
384
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.73
FoulsContext
9.95
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.81
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.00
ShotsContext
13.10
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
33%
On target shareContext
43%
13.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
70%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.11
BlocksContext
3.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
69%
Save rateContext
72%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
604
PassesContext
410
539
Accurate passesContext
349
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.90
8.50
FoulsContext
11.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km1,706 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 19 May | 3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 20 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 616 km | 1,706 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.9 | 90.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
6N. Aké
3Rúben Dias
5J. Stones
82R. Lewis
20Bernardo Silva
14Nico González
26Savinho
42A. Semenyo
4T. Reijnders
47P. Foden
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
40M. Bizot(G)
22I. Maatsen
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
16Andrés García
21Douglas Luiz
26L. Bogarde
10E. Buendía
6R. Barkley
31L. Bailey
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.50points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-3-1
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.67
Aston Villa · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-6
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Brentford | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Everton | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Burnley | W 1–0 AW 5–1 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Arsenal | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Fulham | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | W 4–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 4–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 78 of 108 · 2.17 per game | 59 of 108 · 1.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Manchester City wins1 draws3 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.20
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 26 Oct 2025Aston Villa1–0Manchester City
- 22 Apr 2025Manchester City2–1Aston Villa
- 21 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–1Manchester City
- 3 Apr 2024Manchester City4–1Aston Villa
- 6 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Manchester City
- 12 Feb 2023Manchester City3–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.76 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 51% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 57% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 27% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.50 | 3.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.36 | 5.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.92 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 10.22 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 25/36 | 78% 28/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 20/36 | 69% 25/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 16/36 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.05 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 24/37 | 65% 24/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 14/37 | 38% 14/37 | |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.90 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 13.70 | 9.40 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 10/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 141 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 21.6
Penalties0.17league 0.21
Home wins46%league 43%
Manchester City12 with this referee
Record8-2-2
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Apr 26A · Burnley1–00
- W6 Dec 25H · Sunderland3–01
- W25 May 25A · Fulham2–00
- W15 Feb 25H · Newcastle4–00
- L25 May 24H · Manchester United1–21
Aston Villa14 with this referee
Record5-3-6
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Jan 26A · Crystal Palace0–00
- W3 Dec 25A · Brighton4–32
- W28 Sep 25H · Fulham3–11
- L1 Feb 25A · Wolves0–23
- W30 Sep 23H · Brighton6–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City37 games · scored 76 · conceded 33
9
0-15
9
4
16-30
22
6
31-45
9
6
46-60
14
10
61-75
13
7
76-90
Aston Villa37 games · scored 54 · conceded 48
4
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
9
31-45
10
10
46-60
9
7
61-75
14
9
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
