Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Manchester City had 6.9 days of rest, Sunderland 3.8 and had to travel 168 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel168 kmRest days6.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City71%
Draw17%
Sunderland12%
Manchester City72%
Draw17%
Sunderland11%
Manchester City71%
Draw17%
Sunderland12%
Manchester City63%
Draw20%
Sunderland17%
Manchester City69%
Draw18%
Sunderland13%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
17°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 46%
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 146
Team strength
Manchester City
Sunderland
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
92
AttackIn forecast
62
82
DefenceIn forecast
59
94
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CitySunderland
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.80
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.00
ShotsContext
12.25
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
71%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.67
BlocksContext
3.75
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
91%
Save rateContext
50%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
667
PassesContext
404
599
Accurate passesContext
331
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.25
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.75
FoulsContext
12.75
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.30
ShotsContext
13.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
29%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
67%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.78
9.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.56
BlocksContext
3.70
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
79%
Save rateContext
64%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
616
PassesContext
405
550
Accurate passesContext
331
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.40
FoulsContext
12.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
WWWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,903 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 94 · 12 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
Sunderland
LWDLW
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel168 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 3.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,903 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1G. Donnarumma(G)
24J. Gvardiol
6A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
5E. Anderson
17E. Fernández
42A. Semenyo
10M. Cherki
7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
6D. Methalie
5D. Ballard
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
12T. Meunier
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sunderland · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Manchester City wins1 draws0 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 1 Jan 2026Sunderland0–0Manchester City
- 6 Dec 2025Manchester City3–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.30 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 7.00 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 4.50 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.30 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.60 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 146 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 3.83
Red cards0.10league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls22.8league 22.9
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins46%league 37%
Manchester City10 with this referee
Record8-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- D1 Feb 26A · Tottenham2–23
- W27 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest2–12
- W27 Sep 25H · Burnley5–11
- D7 Dec 24A · Crystal Palace2–22
- W21 Oct 23H · Brighton2–14
Sunderland6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W12 Apr 26H · Tottenham1–03
- W17 Jan 26H · Crystal Palace2–13
- W18 Oct 25H · Wolves2–00
- W16 Aug 25H · West Ham3–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Watford2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City4 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Sunderland4 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
9
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
