Manchester City vs Tottenham – 23 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 12:30 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 2nd · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–2Full time

Tottenham 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were clear favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 65). Manchester City had 6.8 days of rest, Tottenham 6.9 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester City67%

Draw19%

Tottenham14%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.96

Manchester City64%

Draw21%

Tottenham14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.87

Manchester City67%

Draw19%

Tottenham14%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.94

Manchester City59%

Draw22%

Tottenham19%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.08

Manchester City64%

Draw21%

Tottenham15%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.88

Over 2.5 63% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 101

Team strength

Manchester City

Tottenham

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

92 AttackIn forecast 56

82 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Tottenham

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 80%

70% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.60 ShotsContext 10.20

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

34% On target shareContext 31%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

60% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.50 Shots allowedContext 13.90

2.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.75 BlocksContext 4.67

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

78% Save rateContext 63%

64% PossessionIn forecast 43%

615 PassesContext 329

554 Accurate passesContext 260

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.27 Team ratingContext 6.86

7.90 FoulsContext 13.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	200 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1J. Trafford(G)

21R. Aït-Nouri 3Rúben Dias 5J. Stones 82R. Lewis

14Nico González

7O. Marmoush 4T. Reijnders 10M. Cherki 52O. Bobb

9E. Haaland

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha 29P. Sarr

22B. Johnson 9Richarlison 20M. Kudus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Tottenham+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home No home games yet this season.

Tottenham · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Manchester City wins1 draws5 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.60 Over 2.550% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 40%

26 Feb 2025Tottenham0–1Manchester City
23 Nov 2024Manchester City0–4Tottenham
14 May 2024Tottenham0–2Manchester City
3 Dec 2023Manchester City3–3Tottenham
5 Feb 2023Tottenham1–0Manchester City
19 Jan 2023Manchester City4–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	3.00	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Manchester City	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	3.00	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	9.00	11.00	10.18
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	0.00
Match total	3.00	0.00	2.91
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Manchester City	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	4.80
Corners conceded	2.67	5.10
Match total	8.45	9.90	10.18
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	3.70	3.40	2.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.07league 2.82

Red cards0.10league 0.09

Cards 5+44%league 27%

Fouls21.3league 21.5

Penalties0.14league 0.27

Home wins48%league 45%

Manchester City7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W2 May 25H · Wolves1–00
L2 Feb 25A · Arsenal1–50
L21 Dec 24A · Aston Villa1–23
W5 Oct 24H · Fulham3–22
L12 Nov 22H · Brentford1–22

Tottenham8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1 Pens for · against1 · 1

L16 May 25A · Aston Villa0–22
L21 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest1–21
W16 Feb 25H · Manchester United1–01
W16 Sep 23H · Sheffield Utd2–16
L13 May 23A · Aston Villa1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.