Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Manchester United had 5.9 days of rest, Burnley 7 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United49%
Draw25%
Burnley26%
Manchester United48%
Draw26%
Burnley26%
Manchester United49%
Draw25%
Burnley26%
Manchester United41%
Draw26%
Burnley33%
Manchester United48%
Draw26%
Burnley26%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 62
Team strength
Manchester United
Burnley
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
72
AttackIn forecast
27
80
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedBurnley
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-1.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.00
ShotsContext
10.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
31%
On target shareContext
29%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
74%
Box shareContext
54%
3%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
57%
Save rateContext
57%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
436
PassesContext
344
361
Accurate passesContext
269
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.00
FoulsContext
8.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.00
ShotsContext
12.10
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
39%
11.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
68%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.29
8.80
Shots allowedContext
10.80
2.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.80
BlocksContext
3.70
1.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
52%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
489
PassesContext
450
413
Accurate passesContext
375
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.40
FoulsContext
9.80
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel35 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1A. Bayındır(G)
23L. Shaw
4M. de Ligt
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
8Bruno Fernandes
18Casemiro
16A. Diallo
7Mason Mount
19B. Mbeumo
10Matheus Cunha
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
2K. Walker
8L. Ugochukwu
24J. Cullen
11J. Anthony
28H. Mejbri
7J. Bruun Larsen
9L. Foster
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Burnley+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Burnley · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Manchester United wins2 draws0 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 27 Apr 2024Manchester United1–1Burnley
- 23 Sep 2023Burnley0–1Manchester United
- 8 Feb 2022Burnley1–1Manchester United
- 30 Dec 2021Manchester United3–1Burnley
- 18 Apr 2021Manchester United3–1Burnley
- 12 Jan 2021Burnley0–1Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Manchester United | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 0.50 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Manchester United | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 8.50 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.43
Red cards0.06league 0.14
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls20.7league 22.0
Penalties0.23league 0.24
Home wins37%league 52%
Manchester United2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–23
- W19 Oct 24H · Brentford2–12
Burnley3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L31 Jan 24A · Manchester City1–32
- L25 Nov 23H · West Ham1–21
- L28 Oct 23A · Bournemouth1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Burnley2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
3
4
0-15
6
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
