Maritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 16). Benfica usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Maritimo had 7.1 days of rest, Benfica 4.9 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Maritimo9%
Draw14%
Benfica77%
Maritimo10%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
Maritimo9%
Draw14%
Benfica77%
Maritimo6%
Draw11%
Benfica83%
Maritimo9%
Draw15%
Benfica76%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 24
Team strength
Maritimo
Benfica
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
15
AttackIn forecast
81
20
DefenceIn forecast
81
52
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MaritimoBenfica
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.67
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.77
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
100%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.00
ShotsContext
24.33
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
17.67
76%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
—
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.25
Shots allowedContext
5.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.25
BlocksContext
—
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
77%
Save rateContext
50%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
359
PassesContext
584
284
Accurate passesContext
517
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.29
14.25
FoulsContext
13.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
3.06
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
22.75
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.75
31%
On target shareContext
39%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
16.75
68%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.90
Shots allowedContext
7.25
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.40
BlocksContext
2.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
68%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
369
PassesContext
550
297
Accurate passesContext
483
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.25
15.60
FoulsContext
12.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Maritimo
WWDL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Maritimo |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 4.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,396 km | 4,813 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Maritimo
Confirmed XI
13Alfonso Pastor(G)
23Paulo Henrique
44Romain Correia
4Rafael Fernandes
2Igor Julião
18V. Danilović
6Rodrigo Andrade
14R. Guzzo
10Martín Tejón
17Adrián Butzke
35B. Limbombe
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Maritimo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Maritimo · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Benfica · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 7.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Maritimo | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 H | W 7–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Maritimo wins0 draws2 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 12 Mar 2023Maritimo0–3Benfica
- 18 Sep 2022Benfica5–0Maritimo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Maritimo | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.67 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Maritimo | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.30 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 90% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Maritimo | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.00 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.34 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Maritimo | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.16 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 3.40 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 3.89
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 34%
Fouls26.6league 25.3
Penalties0.08league 0.29
Home wins54%league 43%
Maritimo1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Aug 26H · Casa Pia1–02
Benfica1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Sep 25H · Rio Ave1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Maritimo4 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Benfica3 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 33 · conceded 10
8
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
9
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
