Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Marseille had 4 days of rest, Angers 3.2 and had to travel 656 km.
Away travel656 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Marseille71%
Draw18%
Angers10%
Marseille72%
Draw18%
Angers10%
Marseille73%
Draw17%
Angers9%
Marseille64%
Draw21%
Angers14%
Marseille70%
Draw19%
Angers11%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 79
Team strength
Marseille
Angers
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
48
AttackIn forecast
22
46
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleAngers
2.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
78%
Scored inContext
56%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
14.33
ShotsContext
8.33
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
38%
On target shareContext
29%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
64%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.00
Shots allowedContext
14.67
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
2.57
BlocksContext
4.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
76%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
591
PassesContext
354
533
Accurate passesContext
291
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.22
FoulsContext
11.22
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.11
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
8.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
43%
On target shareContext
29%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
59%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.50
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.89
BlocksContext
4.20
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
82%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
542
PassesContext
353
482
Accurate passesContext
292
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.70
FoulsContext
11.30
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,634 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Angers
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel656 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 3.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 656 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,634 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
4C. Egan-Riley
62A. Murillo
23P. Højbjerg
18A. Vermeeren
14Igor Paixão
8A. Gomes
10M. Greenwood
97P. Aubameyang
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
27L. Rao-Lisoa
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille-1.8 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- Angers+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Angers · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Marseille wins2 draws0 Angers wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 9 Feb 2025Angers0–2Marseille
- 4 Oct 2024Marseille1–1Angers
- 14 May 2023Marseille3–1Angers
- 30 Sep 2022Angers0–3Marseille
- 4 Feb 2022Marseille5–2Angers
- 22 Sep 2021Angers0–0Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.44 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.00 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 11% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Marseille | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.44 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.00 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 11% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.26 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 2.67 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Marseille | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 9.78 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 2.70 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 3.81
Red cards0.27league 0.29
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls24.2league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.53
Home wins37%league 54%
Marseille7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W12 Sep 25H · Lorient4–03
- L8 Mar 25H · Lens0–13
- W5 Jan 25H · LE Havre5–11
- W2 Mar 24A · Clermont Foot5–11
- D20 Dec 23A · Montpellier1–11
Angers10 with this referee
Record1-3-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- W4 May 25A · Nantes1–03
- L30 Mar 25H · Rennes0–31
- L18 Aug 24H · Lens0–11
- L16 Apr 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
- D12 Feb 23H · Auxerre1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille9 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
Angers9 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
